Credit and political risk insurance (CPRI) outlook

The CPRI industry is undergoing significant transformation as geopolitical and economic factors reshape demand for risk mitigation. ICIEC’s operations reflect these trends, experiencing sustained demand for both short- and long-term coverage. Sovereign default risks are expected to drive a rise in medium- and long-term claims (Berne Union Confidence Index, August 2024).

OIC Member States trade and investment outlook

Recent growth prospects in OIC countries moderated to a level close to the world average but remain lower than its long-term average of 4.3%. Although the growth rate is expected to increase over the coming two years to reach 4.2% in 2025, it will continue to remain below its long-term average.

Geopolitical instability, inflation and fiscal tightening still predominate as risks to global growth. In the face of these global challenges, many OIC countries continue to struggle in diversifying their economies, improving export competitiveness and reducing inflation rates. Some OIC countries are gaining a competitive edge in trade and investment; however, more actions are needed to ensure the sustainability of these gains. This requires strategic investment in productive capacities in OIC countries to foster innovation and competitiveness.

Intra-OIC trade

Intra-OIC merchandise exports among the OIC countries (intra-OIC trade) followed a similar trend to total exports and decreased in 2023 for the first time since 2020. After peaking at USD 483 billion in 2022, intra-OIC exports decreased by 6.2% to USD 453 billion in 2023 and maintained a similar level in 2024. However, exports from OIC countries to the rest of the world decreased by a higher rate of 11.3%, resulting in an increase in the share of intra-OIC exports from 18.5% in 2023 to 19.4% in 2024. The slow growth in intra-OIC trade flows reduces the prospects for achieving the 25% target set in the OIC Ten-Year Programme of Action (OIC Economic Outlook, 2024).

ICIEC implications for intra-OIC trade opportunities

Analyzing intra-OIC data reveals a strategic imperative for ICIEC: while OIC’s global trade is growing, intra-OIC trade needs strengthening. As a key IsDB Group entity, ICIEC can drive initiatives to enhance trade flow and unlock economic potential for Member States.

The origins of top OIC importers highlight the complexity of trade dynamics. While China dominates as a supplier, the presence of regional and global players in each country’s top suppliers list highlights the need for strategies that both bolster intra-OIC trade and leverage global partnerships effectively.