Reconciling the Harsh Realities of the First Ever Global Stocktake of Climate Goals Progress with the Semantics of COP28 and the Promise of NDC 2025
One of the perennial features of the COP process is expectations management. Fuelled by a frenzy of rhetoric of aspirations, of must-do measures to achieve often perceived arbitrary targets, of a motely of climate sceptics, deniers and vacillators, a cohort of climate lobbyers ranging from eco-activists, NGOs and interest groups, self-styled ecowarriors and worriers, neoliberal dissenters, climate technology promoters, fossil fuel champions, and lip service paying governments of every ilk, a bevy of international agencies and self-interest groups, and a fanfare of funding announcements and commitments, the Conference of the Parties in Dubai – COP28, under the aegis of The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was no exception. Amid the claims and counterclaims of the progress or failures of the Dubai climate discourse, Mushtak Parker dispassionately assesses the outcomes – successes and shortcomings – of COP28.
In some respect, the thunder of the anticipated outcomes of the main COP28 proceedings in Dubai in December 2023 was captured by the first ever Global Stocktake (FGS), a comprehensive evaluation of progress against climate goals, of The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, which convened concurrently from 30 November to 13 December 2023.
The euphoria of 150 countries agreeing for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems” in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” as per the final communiqué, instead of a clear and present commitment to phase out fossil fuels once and for all, was soon lost in the semantics of COP speak, let alone the agreement doesn’t compel countries to take action, and no timescale is specified. Whether the Dubai Declaration is an important recognition that richer countries are expected to move away from coal, oil and gas more quickly is a moot point. The reality is whether a collaborative political will and global leadership to affect such a transformation existed and whether countries are committed to act beyond their mere national and self-interest as opposed to the current fragmented and in some respects competing pathway to climate action.
The FGS is a comprehensive compact document of principles, aspirations, actions, observations, recommendations and warnings which effectively define the complexities of the global climate action playbook and spells out in no uncertain terms the dire implications to humanity of non-compliance with the evidenced-based climate science findings and targets, and any delays in implementing them in an urgent, orderly and committed fashion.
The language of FGS contrasts sharply with the guarded exuberance (some would say misplaced optimism) of the COP28 Presidency and process. Article 5 of the first section of FGS, for instance, “expresses serious concern that 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record and that impacts from climate change are rapidly accelerating and emphasizes the need for urgent action and support to keep the 1.5 °C goal within reach and to address the climate crisis in this critical decade.” Failing this, the risks and impacts of climate change are significantly increased, especially in the absence of drastic reductions in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The FGS in a rejoinder to the developed countries “notes with deep regret that the goal of developed country Parties to mobilize jointly US$100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation was not met in 2021, including owing to challenges in mobilizing finance from private sources, and welcomes the ongoing efforts of developed country Parties towards achieving the goal of mobilizing jointly US$100 billion per year.”
It also fears that the climate adaptation finance gap is widening, and that current levels of climate finance, technology development and transfer, and capacity-building for adaptation remain insufficient to respond to worsening climate change impacts in developing country Parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
The Stocktake also champions the needs of developing country Parties, in particular those disproportionately affected by and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including support provided and mobilized for their efforts to implement their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – a need estimated at US$5.8–5.9 trillion for the pre-2030 period. Similarly, the FGS estimates the adaptation finance needs of developing countries at US$215–387 billion annually up until 2030, and that about US$4.3 trillion per year needs to be invested in clean energy up until 2030.
Supporters of the Global Stocktake stress the importance of uniting the three core elements of the climate agenda, bringing together mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation, which includes finance, under one umbrella: united around higher ambition, giving clear direction on NDCs, and connecting everything agreed to practical action in the real world.
The reality of the FGS approved in Dubai is that there is no timeline, no strategy to compel countries to take action, no future finance structures and de-risking solutions, no SDG-driven real economy commitment to a “transitioning away” playbook, which merely reinforces the feeling that COP28 was a missed opportunity and raises questions about the very raison d’etre and the perversity of the process itself. With some 97,000 registered delegates for the Dubai meeting, easily making it the largest event in COP history since the inaugural one in Berlin in 1995, including an estimated 2,456 representatives of the oil, gas and coal industries and related organisations according to research by the Coalition of Green Groups – this compared with 600 such attendees at COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh last year – is the COP process itself in need of urgent reform and restructuring?
Moral Conscience of the Climate Discourse
It is a far cry from a “just, orderly and equitable” transition espoused in the Global Stocktake which calls on Parties to take actions towards achieving, at a global scale, a tripling of renewable energy capacity, and the phasing down of unabated coal power, with China committed to opening two coal-fired power plants per year over the next few years in addition to those in the UK, Indonesia, India and South Africa, and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Perhaps the FGS can be seen as the moral conscience of the climate discourse, whereas the individual Conference of the Parties the ambition of implementation based on the specific and sometimes competing policy, economic, electoral, financial, demographic, geographic spatial and societal needs.
No amount of reports, declarations, pledges and replenishments, disbursements from the US$792 million Loss and Damage Fund and the cornucopia of 175 announcements – all commendable microcosms towards the holy grail of limiting global warming to 1.5°C – will detract from the fact that it is the insanities of the climate discourse that needs to be exorcised.
One has to have some sympathy for COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber when he stressed in his closing speech that “I know that there are strong views among some parties about the phase down or phase out of fossil fuels. And allow me to say this again, this is the first presidency ever to actively call on parties to come forward with language on all fossil fuels for the negotiated task text.” Indeed, far from being a seamless process, COPs are beholden to the agendas of the previous ones.
Their very modus operandi is based on almost continuous negotiations and compromise. For all their flaws, perceived abuses and issues, COPs are the only structured multilateral mechanism to address the daunting task of global climate governance. So, we all await with abated breath the new NDCs that are due no later than early 2025.
COP28 was much trumpeted to be an “inclusive” discourse. So much for climate inclusion, when the 39 delegates from the Alliance of Small Island States who are particularly vulnerable to climate change and whose very survival is threatened because of rising sea levels, were not even in the room when the final agreement was “gavelled” by Sultan Al-Jaber and his colleagues.
Eight donor governments announced new commitments to the Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund totalling more than US$174 million to date, while new pledges, totalling nearly US$188 million, were made to the Adaptation Fund at COP28 – nowhere near the real cost of adaptation required for mitigating catastrophic climate events to which their donor countries were more historical contributors.
Ambitious but Achievable Renewables Pledge
One of the commendable developments is the fact that Heads of State agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, aligning with the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) World Energy Transitions Outlook on how to close the energy transition gap to stay on a 1.5°C Pathway. It particularly calls for a tripling of installed renewable capacity from around 3,400 GW today to over 11,000 GW by 2030, adding on average an ambitious 1,000 GW annually till the end of this century.
IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera spelt out the caveats in Dubai: “Commitments must translate into concrete actions considering varied national circumstances. The forthcoming round of NDCs in 2025 represent a prime opportunity to make a transformative leap forward. As the custodian of today’s pledge, IRENA supports countries in advancing their energy transitions to ensure progress is made every year towards 2030. Achieving the global pledge requires stronger policy actions, investment and global collaboration, reiterating the criticality of the next seven years for bringing the world back on track towards the 1.5°C pathway and realizing the SDGs.”
Deeply entrenched barriers across infrastructure, policy and institutional capacities, remnants of the fossil-fuel era, he added, must be overcome to scale and speed up the deployment of renewables. And a reform of the global financial architecture should recognise the role of multilateral financial institutions in prioritising the infrastructure needed for a new energy system run on renewables.
According to Anna Mosby, Head of Environmental Policy Analytics at S&P Global, the COP28 pledge to triple renewables by 2030 is “ambitious but achievable.” Some 4.6 TW of solar and wind capacity is forecast to be added between now and 2030, with a projected US$4.7 trillion investment. Despite impressive gains in wind and solar deployment in recent years, however, the target requires an unprecedented acceleration in deployment from today’s 2.3 TW total for the two fastest growing technologies. The latest Clean Energy Technology forecast by S&P Global Commodity Insights sees 3.4 TWac (4.2 TWdc) of solar capacity added over the next eight years. This would more than triple the current installed solar capacity, the biggest increase across green technologies. The global wind sector would see some 1.2 TW added to more than double installed capacity, including some 264 GW offshore wind by 2030.
Outside the Global Stocktake, the main COP28 outcomes, albeit ‘works in progress, and largely based on ‘yet-to-materialise’ pledges, include:
- Operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund to help vulnerable developing countries mitigating historical climate change impacts, which has thus far secured US$792 million of funding pledges.
- Establishing a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), albeit the Adaptation Fund aimed at developing countries only attracted pledges and contributions totalling US$134 million.
- Mobilizing US$85 billion in new commitments and 11 pledges and declarations of support under the UAE Presidency’s total Action Agenda at COP28, which spans four pillars: fast tracking a just and orderly energy transition, fixing climate finance to make it more available, affordable, and accessible, focusing on people, nature, lives and livelihoods, and fostering full inclusivity in climate action.
- The launch of ALTÉRRA, the UAE’s US$30 billion catalytic private finance vehicle, which seeks to mobilize a total of US$250 billion for dedicated global climate action.
- Adopting the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), which commits signatories to zero methane emissions and ending routine flaring by 2030, and to net-zero operations by 2050 at the latest. To date, 52 companies, representing over 40% of global oil production have signed up to it.
- Boosting the Second Replenishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) with six countries pledging new funding at COP28, with total pledges now standing at a record US$12.8 billion from 31 countries, with further contributions expected.
- The World Bank announced an increase of US$9 billion annually for 2024 and 2025 to finance climate-related projects. Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) announced a cumulative increase of over US$22.6 billion toward climate action.
As COP29 in Baku beckons in 2024, the clear trend over the last four years is that oil producing states have been setting the COP agenda. How perverse since the host countries play the crucial role of navigating the agenda. Azerbaijan, one of the largest oil and gas producers in the Caspian Basin, in 2024 is no exception.
The credibility of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), under whose aegis the annual jamboree is convened, itself is at stake. COP28 instead of being the champion for genuine inclusive climate action soon became evident that it was a bastion for selective and limited ambitions in preserving vested interests – a classic case of febrile form over stunted substance. COP28 in essence was transition lite!
One can perhaps excuse the gratuitous hyperbole and exuberance of COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber in his closing Plenary address: “We have delivered a comprehensive response to the Global Stocktake and all the other mandates. Together, we have confronted realities and we have set the world in the right direction. We have given it a robust action plan to keep1.5°C within reach. It is a plan that is led by the science. It is a balanced plan, that tackles emissions, bridges the gap on adaptation, reimagines global finance, and delivers on loss and damage. It is built on common ground. It is strengthened by inclusivity. And it is reinforced by collaboration.”
The COP28 Presidency has been clear in its intention to ensure that the agreements made at COP28 are delivered and followed through to COP29 in Baku and COP30 in Belem, with mechanisms to track progress against implementation. Perhaps a ‘Triumvirate of the Willing’!
The next two years will be critical. The message of UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in Dubai was unequivocal: “At COP29, governments must establish a new climate finance goal, reflecting the scale and urgency of the climate challenge. And at COP30, they must come prepared with new nationally determined contributions that are economy-wide, cover all greenhouse gases and are fully aligned with the 1.5°C temperature limit.”
In the interim though on the road to Baku and Belem, in early 2025, countries must deliver new Nationally Determined Contributions, aimed at bringing every single commitment – on finance, adaptation, and mitigation – in line with a 1.5°C world. That surely will reveal the real intent of progress towards Net Zero and expose or reinforce any gaps or achievements in humanity’s ‘do-or-die’ climate action journey.
