Global Operating Environment

In 2025, intra-OIC trade continued its upward momentum. According to the Islamic Centre for the Development of Trade (ICDT), intra-OIC net trade volume rose sharply—from USD 884 billion in 2023 to USD 1,004 billion in 2024. The share of intra-OIC trade in total foreign trade of Member States also increased from 19.16% in 2023 to 20.36% in 2024. This underscores stronger economic integration, but according to COMCEC reporting, the OIC still has some way to go to reach its target of 25%.

Several factors are underpinning the growth in OIC trade. Commodity price strength and increased local production have played a major role, as noted in OIC-secretariat reporting. At the same time, bilateral and regional trade agreements, including preferential trade frameworks, are contributing to deeper economic ties. Türkiye is leaning into this, encouraging expansion of the OIC’s Trade Preferential System (TPS-OIC) to cover more products and Member States. Risk-mitigation instruments (credit insurance, etc.) are also helping to catalyze intra-OIC trade, especially in South-South transactions.

On the investment front, OIC Member States are increasingly leveraging inward and outward FDI, particularly in infrastructure, energy, and technology sectors. Geopolitical instability and macro risks remain, but there is momentum in deploying capital into productive capacities in OIC economies. COMCEC’s own reporting underscores the need to scale up private-sector mobilization and deepen TPS implementation to further boost investment flows.

Looking toward 2026, intra-OIC trade is likely to keep growing, though the pace may moderate. If current policies and frameworks (like TPS-OIC) are more broadly implemented, this plus ICIEC’s continued de-risking role could help intra-OIC trade approach the 25% target more sustainably. On the investment side, OIC countries may see rising FDI inflows, especially into green infrastructure, AI, and digital services, but this hinges on managing macro-financial risks. While FDI saw an 11% growth in 2024, this was uneven once conduit economies are excluded. Thus, investor uncertainty (from global protectionism or regional geopolitical tensions) remains a key risk to realizing the full potential of economic integration.

In 2025, the Berne Union’s Business Confidence Index (BCI) signaled strong demand for short-term export credit insurance, driven by accelerating global trade and heightened geopolitical risk. Berne Union (BU) members are particularly optimistic due to rising protectionism and tariff uncertainty, prompting exporters to secure coverage. At the same time, demand for longer-tenor (medium- and long-term) coverage remains stable, underpinned by defense contracts in Europe and infrastructure investment in emerging markets.

On the credit insurance side, the market is expected to grow steadily but without sharp expansion. According to market research, the global credit insurance market size is projected to increase by 2.1% from around USD 13.32 billion in 2025 to USD 13.6 billion in 2026, reflecting moderate but persistent demand for protection against non-payment risk. At the same time, the Berne Union’s Business Confidence Trends Index suggests short-term export credit insurance demand remains optimistic in mid-2025, even as providers watch sovereign and long-tenor risk closely (especially in emerging markets).

On the claims side, BU survey respondents express concern. While demand is rising, short-term claims expectations remain elevated, reflecting slower-than-expected normalization and persistent geopolitical risk. For longer-tenor exposures, sovereign debt risk—particularly in frontier and emerging markets like parts of Western Africa—remains a key worry, with the strong dollar further pressuring debt-servicing capacity.

Looking into 2026, the Berne Union’s market dynamics suggest a continued expansion of credit and political risk insurance (CPRI), especially for long-duration political risk products. The 2025 BU press release highlights that despite global volatility, record underwriting levels were reached in 2024, reaffirming the resilience of trade and investment insurance. At the same time, the industry is evolving and the private CPRI market is diversifying, with more underwriters specializing in renewable energy, infrastructure, and lower-rated obligors, signaling a long-term structural shift in risk appetite.