Given that Baku is the host city for COP29 at the end of 2024, the focus for the third consecutive Conference of the Parties (COP) under the aegis of The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) converges on Azerbaijan, the newest ICIEC accession Member Country, following in the footsteps of Sharm El Sheikh for COP27 and Dubai for COP28. In the UAE, ICIEC also launched its much-anticipated Climate Change Policy and ESG Framework. Salih Suwarelzahab, Senior Legal Counsel and Climate Action Team Lead at ICIEC, looks ahead to a post-COP28 Climate Action, Finance and Risk Management Pathway underpinned by the Corporation’s transformative results-oriented Climate Change Policy and ESG Framework, the IsDB Group synergies, the role and importance of partnerships with global best practice institutions and the private sector, and the promise and opportunities of Azerbaijan’s brave new Green Energy and Decarbonisation Strategy.

COP28 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) represents a watershed moment in ICIEC’s history with the launch of ICIEC’s Climate Change Policy and ESG Framework. The publishing of the two key documents reflects an ongoing commitment towards mainstreaming Climate Action that began in 2021 at COP26 in Glasgow, in which Mr. Oussama Kaissi, CEO of ICIEC, participated.

Through a stepwise approach ICIEC setup a Taskforce dedicated to Climate Action and implemented the screening of Political Risk Insurance projects for Climate Risks. ICIEC staff were trained in Climate Change Fundamentals, whilst existing partnerships were steered towards addressing common objectives around sustainability and climate change, and new partnerships were forged, such as ICIEC’s membership of the InsuResilience Global Partnership for Climate and Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance Solutions in 2022.

In 2023 a total business insured target of 10% was dedicated to Climate Action and this target was reached and surpassed. In 2024 the target for total business insured for Climate Change projects and transactions was increased to 13%.

Climate Change Policy

ICIEC Climate Change Policy serves as a testament to our dedication to addressing climate change head-on. It is our blueprint for a greener, cleaner, and more sustainable world. Through this policy, we outline our commitment to reducing carbon emissions, protecting our planet’s invaluable natural resources, and promoting sustainable economic growth.

The ICIEC Climate Change Policy establishes to:

• Support Member States to meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement, particularly their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
• Promote investment and trade opportunities that support resilience, playing a pivotal role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing adaptability to climate change.
• Be aligned with The Islamic Development Bank Group by guaranteeing projects and investments that are in line with the Group’s climate action objectives.
• Engage with Financial Institutions to promote business models and investments that are focused on renewable, energy-efficient, natural capital, among other environmental themes, aligning with the broader transition towards the low-carbon economy.

ICIEC’s Climate Change Policy and ESG Framework mark the commencement of a transformative results-oriented process where ICIEC’s operations, insurance, de-risking, physical assets and human capital and focus are addressing the Climate Crisis at their core, based on the needs of ICIEC’s member countries, IsDB Group synergies, the role of the private sector in climate finance and industry best practice. 2024 sees the second phase of the Climate Change project which is dedicated to screening, monitoring and evaluation based on practical, achievable and industry benchmarked parameters that take all ICIEC’s business lines into account.

At the institutional level, the year 2024 will witness the responsibility for Climate Change and ESG being housed in a dedicated Function whilst capacity building continues to be offered to all operations staff who will have specific climate change specific KPI’s. Staff who are trained in climate change are naturally better equipped to proactively seek out transactions and projects that contribute towards climate change mitigation, adaptation and/or resilience. A stock take of ecological consumption versus potential savings will take place on ICIEC’s physical premises with clear environmentally friendly recommendations made and implemented, and travel mission carbon footprints will be mitigated through investment in certifiable carbon sink schemes in ICIEC member countries.

Collaboration & Smart Partnerships the Key
Collaboration and smart partnerships remain at the heart of ICIEC’s Climate Action strategy as the global climate funding gap continues to grow whilst climate disasters proliferate. Through smart partnerships, ICIEC has signed a number of MoUs with technology and industry leaders such as GE Vernova, multilateral institutions focused on designing climate-based solutions such as the Global Green Growth Institute and export credit agencies (ECA’s) whose portfolio of transactions and supported companies are predominantly renewable energy based, such as EKF of Denmark.

Closer to ICIEC Headquarters, outreach is underway with the Saudi and Middle East Green Initiatives in order to tap into the value chains of carbon sequestration and the circular economy. A methodological approach to partnerships has ICIEC member states’ National Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans at its core.

Due to its proximity to its member countries, ICIEC, through the Member Country Partnership Strategy of the IsDB Group, remains cognizant of the priority areas of respective member countries for climate action. This know-how is invaluable to financial institutions that have financing targets and that need ICIEC’s de-risking and insurance support to access new markets and to expand their footprint in existing ones. Furthermore, specialized companies in member countries that produce goods or services that contribute towards climate action are continuously identified with a view to assisting their activities in other ICIEC member states and beyond.

ICIEC joined ETAF, the Energy Transitional Accelerator Financing Platform, managed by IRENA, at COP28 in Dubai in recognition of the need to bring diverse, effective partners (including the private sector, multilateral lenders and renewable energy industry leaders) around the same table in order to support the rollout of renewable energy projects to the amount of US$4 billion by 2025. ICIEC, as a member of the International Union of Credit and Investment Insurers (the Berne Union), which celebrates its 90^th anniversary this year, has been invited to join the Berne Union Climate Working Group and shall bring the perspective of the Economic South and 49 member countries in the search for export credit and insurance-based contributions and solutions to the climate crisis.

As a founding member of the AMAN Union of Commercial and Non-commercial Risk Insurers and Reinsurers in member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League, ICIEC strives to provide climate leadership and assistance to sister ECA’s in member countries as the common challenges posed by the climate crisis invariably provide opportunities for growth in new economic sectors.

Azerbaijan’s Competitive Green Advantages

Since COP26, two COPs have fortuitously been hosted by ICIEC member countries, COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, whose focus was on adaptation, and COP28 in Dubai, in the UAE with COP29 being hosted by ICIEC’s newest member country Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is one of the oldest and most pioneering oil producing countries in the world, with drilling and extraction activities dating back to at least the 1800’s.

Few countries reflect energy transition in a similar manner to Azerbaijan with a commitment to produce 30% of energy from renewables by 2030 and with the potential to be a green hydrogen hub and key supplier to the European Union, capitalizing on 23,000 MW of solar power potential, 800 MW of wind energy power, 520 MW of hydropower energy and 800 MW of geothermal energy. In a geopolitical energy ecosystem rife with uncertainty and volatility due to the conflict in Ukraine, if implemented correctly, Azerbaijan’s hydrogen potential is capable of providing the ultimate win-win scenario and playbook, clean fuel for the European Union (EU) market in line with EU pledges, legislation and taxonomies, and a new and profitable global export for Azerbaijan.

One of Azerbaijan’s competitive advantages for green hydrogen export is the existing pipeline infrastructure that was designed and built to export hydrocarbons. Across ICIEC’s 49 member countries whilst the severity of the climate crisis continues to become more manifest, innumerable opportunities for green growth emerge that are spurred on by innovation, technology and enterprise.

ESG Framework

The ICIEC ESG framework is a comprehensive strategy that reflects the organization’s strong commitment to environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles. It is designed to integrate ESG values into every aspect of ICIEC’s operations and decision-making. Key elements of the ICIEC ESG framework include:

•  The framework underscores the importance of embedding ESG principles at the core of ICIEC’s operations.
• ICIEC’s governance structure ensures oversight of ESG initiatives and their integration into the overall business strategy.
• ICIEC focuses on developing ESG-centric products and services while incorporating ESG criteria into risk assessment and underwriting.
• ICIEC implements various measures to promote sustainability throughout its internal processes, from HR to supply chain management and policies.
•  ICIEC actively aligns with global sustainability objectives and collaborates on initiatives that contribute to these goals.
• ICIEC’s framework includes a robust ESG reporting mechanism that promotes transparency and accountability, ensuring stakeholders are informed about ICIEC’s ESG performance

Collaboration & Smart Partnerships the Key                                                              

Collaboration and smart partnerships remain at the heart of ICIEC’s Climate Action strategy as the global climate funding gap continues to grow whilst climate disasters proliferate. Through smart partnerships, ICIEC has signed a number of MoUs with technology and industry leaders such as GE Vernova, multilateral institutions focused on designing climate-based solutions such as the Global Green Growth Institute and export credit agencies (ECA’s) whose portfolio of transactions and supported companies are predominantly renewable energy based, such as EKF of Denmark.

Closer to ICIEC Headquarters, outreach is underway with the Saudi and Middle East Green Initiatives in order to tap into the value chains of carbon sequestration and the circular economy. A methodological approach to partnerships has ICIEC member states’ National Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans at its core.

Due to its proximity to its member countries, ICIEC, through the Member Country Partnership Strategy of the IsDB Group, remains cognizant of the priority areas of respective member countries for climate action. This know-how is invaluable to financial institutions that have financing targets and that need ICIEC’s de-risking and insurance support to access new markets and to expand their footprint in existing ones. Furthermore, specialized companies in member countries that produce goods or services that contribute towards climate action are continuously identified with a view to assisting their activities in other ICIEC member states and beyond.

ICIEC joined ETAF, the Energy Transitional Accelerator Financing Platform, managed by IRENA, at COP28 in Dubai in recognition of the need to bring diverse, effective partners (including the private sector, multilateral lenders and renewable energy industry leaders) around the same table in order to support the rollout of renewable energy projects to the amount

of US$4 billion by 2025. ICIEC, as a member of the International Union of Credit and Investment Insurers (the Berne Union), which celebrates its 90^th anniversary this year, has been invited to join the Berne Union Climate Working Group and shall bring the perspective of the Economic South and 49 member countries in the search for export credit and insurance-based contributions and solutions to the climate crisis.

As a founding member of the AMAN Union of Commercial and Non-commercial Risk Insurers and Reinsurers in member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League, ICIEC strives to provide climate leadership and assistance to sister ECA’s in member countries as the common challenges posed by the climate crisis invariably provide opportunities for growth in new economic sectors.

ICIEC and Climate Action
Partnership: ICIEC is proud to announce the signing of several key partnerships to provide a framework for joint action in promoting climate action, green projects, extending training and capacity-building opportunities, and organizing joint seminars and workshops. These collaborations will enable us to better understand our shared challenges related to climate change mitigation efforts as well as help create a more sustainable future for all. We are confident that these initiatives will bring positive changes both locally and globally by providing access to resources that can help reduce emissions while also creating jobs through green investments.

• ICIEC has been proactively aiding the OIC member states in reaching their climate objectives. An innovative step by ICIEC in this direction is the Green Sukuk Insurance Policy, facilitating Sukuk issuers to secure capital for viable green initiatives. Furthermore, ICIEC is providing de-risking solutions for regional funds in Africa, focusing on mitigation and adaptation measures.
• Towards a sustainable financial horizon, ICIEC has put forth the idea of a climate-centric fund in collaboration with institutional partners. This proposed fund is poised to offer discounted insurance premiums for financing Climate Action initiatives, especially in the Least Developed Member States. Additionally, ICIEC is committed to capacity building, leading to the provision of climate change training for its employees.
• To underscore its commitment to the Climate Action cause, ICIEC has become a part of the InsuResilience Global Partnership, aiming for climate disaster risk finance and solutions. This move solidifies ICIEC’s position as a pioneer among its industry contemporaries. Presently, ICIEC signed a Collaborative Partnership Agreement with The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), through the Energy Transition Accelerator Financing Platform (ETAF), a multi-stakeholder climate finance solution.
•  ICIEC has signed an agreement with ”Aware for Projects”, a landmark online climate risk screening software solution. This new tool will help the Corporation identify potential climate change risks and develop a consistent approach to assessing them.
• ICIEC developed a Climate Change Policy and ESG Guidelines to institutionalize its Climate Action and Green Finance commitments.

Azerbaijan’s Competitive Green Advantages

Since COP26, two COPs have fortuitously been hosted by ICIEC member countries, COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, whose focus was on adaptation, and COP28 in Dubai, in the UAE with COP29 being hosted by ICIEC’s newest member country Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is one of the oldest and most pioneering oil producing countries in the world, with drilling and extraction activities dating back to at least the 1800’s.

Few countries reflect energy transition in a similar manner to Azerbaijan with a commitment to produce 30% of energy from renewables by 2030 and with the potential to be a green hydrogen hub and key supplier to the European Union, capitalizing on 23,000 MW of solar power potential, 800 MW of wind energy power, 520 MW of hydropower energy and 800 MW of geothermal energy. In a geopolitical energy ecosystem rife with uncertainty and volatility due to the conflict in Ukraine, if implemented correctly, Azerbaijan’s hydrogen potential is capable of providing the ultimate win-win scenario and playbook, clean fuel for the European Union (EU) market in line with EU pledges, legislation and taxonomies, and a new and profitable global export for Azerbaijan.

One of Azerbaijan’s competitive advantages for green hydrogen export is the existing pipeline infrastructure that was designed and built to export hydrocarbons. Across ICIEC’s 49 member countries whilst the severity of the climate crisis continues to become more manifest, innumerable opportunities for green growth emerge that are spurred on by innovation, technology and enterprise.

Azerbaijan’s Brave New Green Energy Strategy with a Stated Role for Islamic Finance, Investment and De-risking Solutions

Given that Baku is the host city for COP29 at the end of 2024 and Azerbaijan is a recent ICIEC accession member state, it is no surprise that the Government of President Ilham Aliyev is prioritising key economic development areas such as the promotion of regional connectivity (rail, gas pipelines, and electricity transmission), decarbonization especially through solar and wind renewable energy, the ‘Middle Corridor’ project which is aimed at supporting SMEs through collaboration with local domestic banks, and the promotion of Islamic finance and ICIEC’s credit and investment de-risking insurance. Oguz Aktuna, Acting Manager, Asia Region Division, Business Development Department at ICIEC, profiles Azerbaijan’s clean energy transition status and its Net Zero pathway, and ICIEC’s recent and future involvement in the country’s SDG and decarbonisation journey.

Azerbaijan joined membership of ICIEC in January 2023. Azerbaijan will host the COP29 Climate Summit in Baku in 2024. This signifies a crucial global event, with the country hosting the climate conference for the first time in the Central Asian region.  ICIEC on the other hand, with its experience in renewable projects will support Azerbaijan’s clean energy transition and its Net Zero pathway.

Azerbaijan plays a crucial role as an energy hub and as a transportation corridor in the region by connecting the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent Central Asian States) to Europe. In 2023, ICIEC, together with the Government of Azerbaijan, outlined key priorities to participate in projects for the economic development of the country, such as the promotion of regional connectivity (rail, gas pipelines, and electricity transmission), decarbonization (renewable energy – Solar, Wind), the “Middle Corridor” project, supporting SMEs through collaboration with local domestic banks, promotion of Islamic finance and Islamic insurance and supporting the reconstruction of the Karabakh enclave.

Azerbaijan’s economic progress has historically relied on oil and gas exploration, constituting 95% of its export revenue. Despite this, the country has embraced global efforts to combat climate change, ratifying the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017. Azerbaijan announced a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 35% by 2030 and 40% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a 25-year lifespan for Azerbaijan’s oil reserves, emphasizing the need for alternative energy sources. It should be mentioned that the climatic conditions in Azerbaijan present significant opportunities for generating electricity through solar and wind resources. Key renewable energy sources include onshore and offshore wind farms/clusters, solar power, and hydroelectricity. The potential for solar and wind power generation is particularly noteworthy.

Azerbaijan is currently entering a strategic development phase. The focus is on creating economic opportunities in newly liberated territories (Karabakh, Eastern Zangazur and Nakhchivan), emphasizing a modern construction model and a “Green Energy Zone” with stated net-zero emissions. The government has undertaken extensive infrastructure development, including power transmission lines, substations, and hydroelectric projects. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan is developing a strategy to incorporate sustainable finance principles into the financial sector, including banking, insurance, and capital markets. Commitment to clean technologies, the use of clean energy, recycling, and environmental remediation is a key aspect of Azerbaijan’s policy.

Azerbaijan’s Green Energy Focus

To adhere to the targets Azerbaijan has initiated partnerships in “green energy” projects involving key players such as Masdar (Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company), ACWA Power, BP, and others. Such plans include the construction of the solar and wind energy projects with Masdar, for a total capacity of up to 1.0 GW onshore and offshore. ACWA Power has entered into implementation agreements with the Azerbaijani Ministry of Energy for the development of a 1.0 GW onshore wind farm and a 1.5 GW offshore wind farm featuring energy storage. In October 2023, the Garadagh Solar Power Plant (230 MW) constructed in cooperation with Masdar, came on stream.

The country aims to strengthen its electricity network to integrate 1,862 MW of “green power” by 2027. Efforts are underway to establish the “Caspian-EU Green Energy Corridor” and the “Azerbaijan-Turkey-Europe Corridor”, with plans to export approximately 5 GW of green electricity through various routes by 2030. To achieve this objective, leaders of the governments of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Hungary, and Romania have collectively signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the construction of the Black Sea Energy Subsea Cable. Furthermore, Azerbaijan expresses a keen interest in involving other Caspian littoral countries, such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, in this project.

In 2019, the IsDB’s Board of Executive Directors (BED) approved the IsDB Climate Change Policy. During COP28, ICIEC announced the launch of its groundbreaking Climate Change Policy and ESG Framework and an agreement to join the Energy Transition Accelerator Financing (ETAF) Platform, managed by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). ICIEC recognizes that export credit insurance and political risk insurance are essential tools to bridge the Climate Action finance gap by de-risking investments and access to capital goods and green technology, thus making them more attractive and bankable to private sector participation.

Spanning the Water-Energy-Food Value Chain

Climate Action encompasses the range of vital value chains that span the Water- Energy-Food as relates to climate change resilience, mitigation and adaptation, which is reflected in the range of projects and interventions that ICIEC continues to support in its Member States. ICIEC’s innovative solutions provide protection against nonpayment risks associated with international trade transactions, while also providing support for green investments in renewable energy projects, low-carbon transport systems, clean technology transfers and other sustainable initiatives.

ICIEC is committed to helping our 49 Member States achieve their development goals, including resilience, mitigation and adaptation to the threats posed by climate change. ICIEC cover has been directed towards various sectors over the years, with US$2.35 billion going specifically into clean energy initiatives such as solar energy systems and wind farms – assisting with their importation and use in national infrastructure projects. With this commitment to ICIEC Member States’ development goals, we strive to help mitigate threats from climate change so that all stakeholders may benefit from a better future together.

Historically, ICIEC, as a multilateral credit and political risk insurer, has been playing an important role in facilitating renewable energy projects in its Member Countries. For example, in 2016, ICIEC supported 316 MW Wind Farm Projects in Turkey and provided a US$80 million reinsurance cover to Eksport Kredit Fonden (EKF), – the Danish ECA, now rebranded as EIFO. In 2018, ICIEC provided US$68 million in political risk cover to support Alcazar Energy’s (UAE) investment in four 50MW solar plants. The project is part of Egypt’s Nubian Suns Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff (FiT) programme announced in September 2014, which is in line with the Egyptian government’s Sustainable Energy Strategy 2035.

In Sharjah, UAE, ICIEC supported the waste-to-energy (WtE) project, led by Masdar, and Bee’ah (Sharjah Environment Company). ICIEC provided insurance cover for the project’s construction financing, working in partnership with SMBC, the leading Japanese bank. During COP 28 ICIEC and Standard Chartered Bank signed a Non-Honoring of Sovereign Financial Obligation (NHSFO) policy for supporting the project of procuring and installing 50,000 off-grid solar-powered streetlamps across Senegal’s rural areas.

We will continue our support for clean energy projects in our Member Countries. In 2023, ICIEC and Masdar signed an MoU to promote renewable energy projects in Member Countries using ICIEC’s credit enhancement and risk mitigation solutions. During COP 28, ICIEC and GE Energy Financial Services, Inc. (GE Vernova) inked an MoU aimed at bolstering sustainable development and climate action across ICIEC’s 49 Member Countries.

Transforming the Progress of the ‘UAE Consensus’ at COP28 on Tripling Renewables through Greater Alignment of NDCs with National Energy Plans

One of the positive outcomes of COP28 in Dubai was the setting of a global target to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. The so-called ‘UAE Consensus’ seems to have cemented the role of renewables as one of the most effective ways to address climate change and transition to a just and clean energy dispensation. As the ‘Custodian’ of the global renewable energy pledge, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is committed to monitoring the progress towards achieving the targets on an annual basis and track COP28 commitments to maintain momentum to 2030. Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA, here discusses the challenges and opportunities for renewables at a time when current global and national commitments fall short of the necessary levels required by between 30-50% by modernising existing physical infrastructure to support and accelerate the renewables grid system and regulatory architecture to facilitate investments and improve socio-economic and environmental outcomes, the urgent need to develop a ‘fit-for-purpose’ workforce, and the role of Islamic finance options especially innovative de-risking and credit enhancement involving also private capital in enhancing IRENA’s Energy Transition Accelerator Financing (ETAF) Platform and toolkit, to which the IsDB and ICIEC signed up to in Dubai.

ICIEC Quarterly Newsletter: Now that the fog of COP28 Dubai has settled, can you share your assessment of COP28 per se, and those relating in particular to achieving the Paris Net Zero targets by 2050, the holy grail of restricting global warming to 1.5ºC and the state of renewable energy in the global energy mix? What are the investment needs according to IRENA? How do they compare to where we are now?

By setting a global target to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 to more than 11 TW, the UAE Consensus at COP28 in Dubai has successfully cemented the role of renewables as one of the most effective energy solutions to address climate change, creating unprecedented momentum and crystal-clear direction for the energy transition.

We are proud that IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook served as the foundation for this target. The chance to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement is slipping away, we cannot afford to miss the closing window of opportunity. Now it is on governments to match this increased ambition with concrete plan and action.

IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023 makes sober reading but also highlights the huge benefits a just energy transition could bring in terms of GDP growth, jobs, poverty alleviation, and remedies from the devastating impacts of climate change. Do you think the pledge made by Heads of State at COP28 to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 is achievable when funding commitments made on climate action at previous COPs were not met? Do you agree that accelerating transition progress worldwide requires a shift away from mindset and structures built for the fossil fuel era? In this respect what is your view on the UAE COP28 Presidency’s call for a Global Renewable Energy Target to complement that of the Paris one? Fossil fuel producers argue for an orderly transition period given the role they have in forex earnings, revenues, job creation, financing budgets and development agendas. Do you agree?

Doubling down on the energy transition should not be viewed as a cost, rather as an investment opportunity. Our analysis clearly shows that a renewables-based energy transition will help create jobs, grow the global economy, improve energy access and enhance energy security.

In fact, IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook finds that the substantial job losses in conventional energy jobs would be more than offset by 2030 through gains in renewable energy and other energy-transition-related jobs. It is already concretely established that renewables are the most effective climate action tool available. The next frontier is to eliminate any lingering doubt about its business case and viability for economic growth and prosperity.

The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and its multilateral insurer, ICIEC signed Partners Agreements on accession to IRENA’s Energy Transition Accelerator Financing (ETAF) Platform in Dubai, focused on advancing just, affordable and clean energy transition in low-and-medium-income countries (LMICs). How will the ETAF Platform facilitate the financing of renewable energy projects in IsDB member states and how can we upscale the involvement of Islamic finance in climate action, mitigation, adaptation and finance, especially through a smart partnership between IRENA and ICIEC, specifically to boost the role of credit and investment insurers such as ICIEC in making renewable energy projects bankable to donors, institutional and private investors?

Last year was record-breaking in terms of renewable energy installations and investments. However, it is important to recognise that progress is not advancing equally across the world. In fact, over the past six years, the gap in renewable energy investment between developed and developing countries has widened considerably.

For example, in 2015, the per capita investment in renewable energy in Europe and North America (excluding Mexico) was nearly 23 times greater than in Sub-Saharan Africa. By 2021, this disparity grew further, with per capita investment in Europe outpacing that in Sub-Saharan Africa by 41 times, and in North America, the difference escalating to 57 times.

This is why IRENA is expanding its project and investment facilitation efforts to help narrow this gap and make affordable financing more accessible to developing countries. Through its Energy Transition Accelerator Financing Platform (ETAF), IRENA is creating a pipeline of energy transition projects and pairing them with investors to accelerate renewable energy deployment.

The platform, established in 2021 with support from the United Arab Emirates, aims to scale up renewable energy projects that contribute to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in developing countries, while also bringing benefits to communities through enhanced energy access and security, and promoting economic growth and diversification.

Today, the ETAF family is 13 partners strong, with collective pledges surpassing US$4 billion at COP28. The ETAF Platform also stands out for its inclusivity, offering a broad range of financial solutions and risk mitigation products. As members of ETAF, the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC) have broadened the platform’s toolkit further with Islamic finance options, enhancing ETAF’s capacity to tailor its support to the unique requirements of numerous developing countries in the Islamic world.

There is a clear global target to triple renewable energy, but how do we ensure that the transition accelerates to that level? What are the main challenges, bottlenecks and impediments in advancing just energy transition through renewable energy?

To ensure that the growth in renewables reaches the necessary levels by 2030, IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook identifies three priority actions for the coming years to urgently overcome existing systemic barriers from the fossil fuel era.

First, we must modernise and expand existing physical infrastructure to support and accelerate the development of a renewables-based energy system. According to IRENA analysis, approximately one third of the total power sector investment to 2030 must go into power grids and flexibility.

Secondly, we need to establish a new policy and regulatory architecture to facilitate investments and improve socio-economic and environmental outcomes. The energy transition is a system-wide effort, extending beyond just adding power, with new rules and regulations needing to be cross-cutting to encompass end-use sectors like industry, buildings, and transport.

Lastly, there is an urgent need to develop a workforce that is well-equipped to build and maintain a renewables-based energy system. This includes retraining and recertifying fossil fuel industry workers for careers in renewable energy.

Without addressing these three key areas, the world will not be able to triple renewables and accelerate the transition to the necessary speed and scale to limit rising temperatures to 1.5 °C.

As the “custodian” of the COP28 renewable energy pledge, where do you see the progress of the industry in 2030. Short of a doomsday scenario of climate apocalypse due to the failure of humanity meeting the cornucopia of targets, how optimistic are you that given the drive, determination and diligence of organisations such as IRENA, we can mitigate some of the worst effects of climate change through credible, just and affordable energy transitions?

There is undeniable progress being made, which will inevitably grow due to the momentum established by the ‘UAE Consensus’ at COP28. As the custodian of the global pledge, IRENA will track progress towards the global energy targets on an annual basis and track COP28 commitments to maintain momentum to 2030.

Our analysis indicates that current commitments fall short of the necessary levels by less than half to meet the tripling renewables pledge. Similarly, targets set in national energy plans and policies fall short by 30%.

The forthcoming round of NDCs in 2025 must bring a transformative leap forward. Renewable energy targets in NDCs must also be aligned with national energy plans to enhance the effectiveness and credibility of these commitments. It also sends a clear message to investors throughout the supply chain, promoting further growth in the renewable energy sector.

Reconciling the Harsh Realities of the First Ever Global Stocktake of Climate Goals Progress with the Semantics of COP28 and the Promise of NDC 2025

One of the perennial features of the COP process is expectations management. Fuelled by a frenzy of rhetoric of aspirations, of must-do measures to achieve often perceived arbitrary targets, of a motely of climate sceptics, deniers and vacillators, a cohort of climate lobbyers ranging from eco-activists, NGOs and interest groups, self-styled ecowarriors and worriers, neoliberal dissenters, climate technology promoters, fossil fuel champions, and lip service paying governments of every ilk, a bevy of international agencies and self-interest groups, and a fanfare of funding announcements and commitments, the Conference of the Parties in Dubai – COP28, under the aegis of The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), was no exception. Amid the claims and counterclaims of the progress or failures of the Dubai climate discourse, Mushtak Parker dispassionately assesses the outcomes – successes and shortcomings – of COP28.

In some respect, the thunder of the anticipated outcomes of the main COP28 proceedings in Dubai in December 2023 was captured by the first ever Global Stocktake (FGS), a comprehensive evaluation of progress against climate goals, of The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, which convened concurrently from 30 November to 13 December 2023.

The euphoria of 150 countries agreeing for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems” in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” as per the final communiqué,  instead of a clear and present commitment to phase out fossil fuels once and for all, was soon lost in the semantics of COP speak, let alone the agreement doesn’t compel countries to take action, and no timescale is specified. Whether the Dubai Declaration is an important recognition that richer countries are expected to move away from coal, oil and gas more quickly is a moot point. The reality is whether a collaborative political will and global leadership to affect such a transformation existed and whether countries are committed to act beyond their mere national and self-interest as opposed to the current fragmented and in some respects competing pathway to climate action.

The FGS is a comprehensive compact document of principles, aspirations, actions, observations, recommendations and warnings which effectively define the complexities of the global climate action playbook and spells out in no uncertain terms the dire implications to humanity of non-compliance with the evidenced-based climate science findings and targets, and any delays in implementing them in an urgent, orderly and committed fashion.

The language of FGS contrasts sharply with the guarded exuberance (some would say misplaced optimism) of the COP28 Presidency and process. Article 5 of the first section of FGS, for instance, “expresses serious concern that 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record and that impacts from climate change are rapidly accelerating and emphasizes the need for urgent action and support to keep the 1.5 °C goal within reach and to address the climate crisis in this critical decade.” Failing this, the risks and impacts of climate change are significantly increased, especially in the absence of drastic reductions in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

The FGS in a rejoinder to the developed countries “notes with deep regret that the goal of developed country Parties to mobilize jointly US$100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation was not met in 2021, including owing to challenges in mobilizing finance from private sources, and welcomes the ongoing efforts of developed country Parties towards achieving the goal of mobilizing jointly US$100 billion per year.”

It also fears that the climate adaptation finance gap is widening, and that current levels of climate finance, technology development and transfer, and capacity-building for adaptation remain insufficient to respond to worsening climate change impacts in developing country Parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

The Stocktake also champions the needs of developing country Parties, in particular those disproportionately affected by and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including support provided and mobilized for their efforts to implement their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – a need estimated at US$5.8–5.9 trillion for the pre-2030 period. Similarly, the FGS estimates the adaptation finance needs of developing countries at US$215–387 billion annually up until 2030, and that about US$4.3 trillion per year needs to be invested in clean energy up until 2030.

Supporters of the Global Stocktake stress the importance of uniting the three core elements of the climate agenda, bringing together mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation, which includes finance, under one umbrella: united around higher ambition, giving clear direction on NDCs, and connecting everything agreed to practical action in the real world.

The reality of the FGS approved in Dubai is that there is no timeline, no strategy to compel countries to take action, no future finance structures and de-risking solutions, no SDG-driven real economy commitment to a “transitioning away” playbook, which merely reinforces the feeling that COP28 was a missed opportunity and raises questions about the very raison d’etre and the perversity of the process itself. With some 97,000 registered delegates for the Dubai meeting, easily making it the largest event in COP history since the inaugural one in Berlin in 1995, including an estimated 2,456 representatives of the oil, gas and coal industries and related organisations according to research by the Coalition of Green Groups – this compared with 600 such attendees at COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh last year – is the COP process itself in need of urgent reform and restructuring?

Moral Conscience of the Climate Discourse

It is a far cry from a “just, orderly and equitable” transition espoused in the Global Stocktake which calls on Parties to take actions towards achieving, at a global scale, a tripling of renewable energy capacity, and the phasing down of unabated coal power, with China committed to opening two coal-fired power plants per year over the next few years in addition to those in the UK, Indonesia, India and South Africa, and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Perhaps the FGS can be seen as the moral conscience of the climate discourse, whereas the individual Conference of the Parties the ambition of implementation based on the specific and sometimes competing policy, economic, electoral, financial, demographic, geographic spatial and societal needs.

No amount of reports, declarations, pledges and replenishments, disbursements from the US$792 million Loss and Damage Fund and the cornucopia of 175 announcements – all commendable microcosms towards the holy grail of limiting global warming to 1.5°C – will detract from the fact that it is the insanities of the climate discourse that needs to be exorcised.

One has to have some sympathy for COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber when he stressed in his closing speech that “I know that there are strong views among some parties about the phase down or phase out of fossil fuels. And allow me to say this again, this is the first presidency ever to actively call on parties to come forward with language on all fossil fuels for the negotiated task text.” Indeed, far from being a seamless process, COPs are beholden to the agendas of the previous ones.

Their very modus operandi is based on almost continuous negotiations and compromise. For all their flaws, perceived abuses and issues, COPs are the only structured multilateral mechanism to address the daunting task of global climate governance. So, we all await with abated breath the new NDCs that are due no later than early 2025.

COP28 was much trumpeted to be an “inclusive” discourse. So much for climate inclusion, when the 39 delegates from the Alliance of Small Island States who are particularly vulnerable to climate change and whose very survival is threatened because of rising sea levels, were not even in the room when the final agreement was “gavelled” by Sultan Al-Jaber and his colleagues.

Eight donor governments announced new commitments to the Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund totalling more than US$174 million to date, while new pledges, totalling nearly US$188 million, were made to the Adaptation Fund at COP28 – nowhere near the real cost of adaptation required for mitigating catastrophic climate events to which their donor countries were more historical contributors.

Ambitious but Achievable Renewables Pledge

One of the commendable developments is the fact that Heads of State agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, aligning with the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) World Energy Transitions Outlook on how to close the energy transition gap to stay on a 1.5°C Pathway. It particularly calls for a tripling of installed renewable capacity from around 3,400 GW today to over 11,000 GW by 2030, adding on average an ambitious 1,000 GW annually till the end of this century.

IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera spelt out the caveats in Dubai: “Commitments must translate into concrete actions considering varied national circumstances. The forthcoming round of NDCs in 2025 represent a prime opportunity to make a transformative leap forward. As the custodian of today’s pledge, IRENA supports countries in advancing their energy transitions to ensure progress is made every year towards 2030. Achieving the global pledge requires stronger policy actions, investment and global collaboration, reiterating the criticality of the next seven years for bringing the world back on track towards the 1.5°C pathway and realizing the SDGs.”

Deeply entrenched barriers across infrastructure, policy and institutional capacities, remnants of the fossil-fuel era, he added, must be overcome to scale and speed up the deployment of renewables. And a reform of the global financial architecture should recognise the role of multilateral financial institutions in prioritising the infrastructure needed for a new energy system run on renewables.

According to Anna Mosby, Head of Environmental Policy Analytics at S&P Global, the COP28 pledge to triple renewables by 2030 is “ambitious but achievable.” Some 4.6 TW of solar and wind capacity is forecast to be added between now and 2030, with a projected US$4.7 trillion investment. Despite impressive gains in wind and solar deployment in recent years, however, the target requires an unprecedented acceleration in deployment from today’s 2.3 TW total for the two fastest growing technologies. The latest Clean Energy Technology forecast by S&P Global Commodity Insights sees 3.4 TWac (4.2 TWdc) of solar capacity added over the next eight years. This would more than triple the current installed solar capacity, the biggest increase across green technologies. The global wind sector would see some 1.2 TW added to more than double installed capacity, including some 264 GW offshore wind by 2030.

Outside the Global Stocktake, the main COP28 outcomes, albeit ‘works in progress, and largely based on ‘yet-to-materialise’ pledges, include:

• Operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund to help vulnerable developing countries mitigating historical climate change impacts, which has thus far secured US$792 million of funding pledges.
• Establishing a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), albeit the Adaptation Fund aimed at developing countries only attracted pledges and contributions totalling US$134 million.
• Mobilizing US$85 billion in new commitments and 11 pledges and declarations of support under the UAE Presidency’s total Action Agenda at COP28, which spans four pillars: fast tracking a just and orderly energy transition, fixing climate finance to make it more available, affordable, and accessible, focusing on people, nature, lives and livelihoods, and fostering full inclusivity in climate action.
• The launch of ALTÉRRA, the UAE’s US$30 billion catalytic private finance vehicle, which seeks to mobilize a total of US$250 billion for dedicated global climate action.
• Adopting the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), which commits signatories to zero methane emissions and ending routine flaring by 2030, and to net-zero operations by 2050 at the latest. To date, 52 companies, representing over 40% of global oil production have signed up to it.
• Boosting the Second Replenishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) with six countries pledging new funding at COP28, with total pledges now standing at a record US$12.8 billion from 31 countries, with further contributions expected.
• The World Bank announced an increase of US$9 billion annually for 2024 and 2025 to finance climate-related projects. Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) announced a cumulative increase of over US$22.6 billion toward climate action.

As COP29 in Baku beckons in 2024, the clear trend over the last four years is that oil producing states have been setting the COP agenda. How perverse since the host countries play the crucial role of navigating the agenda. Azerbaijan, one of the largest oil and gas producers in the Caspian Basin, in 2024 is no exception.

The credibility of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), under whose aegis the annual jamboree is convened, itself is at stake. COP28 instead of being the champion for genuine inclusive climate action soon became evident that it was a bastion for selective and limited ambitions in preserving vested interests – a classic case of febrile form over stunted substance. COP28 in essence was transition lite!

One can perhaps excuse the gratuitous hyperbole and exuberance of COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber in his closing Plenary address: “We have delivered a comprehensive response to the Global Stocktake and all the other mandates. Together, we have confronted realities and we have set the world in the right direction. We have given it a robust action plan to keep1.5°C within reach. It is a plan that is led by the science. It is a balanced plan, that tackles emissions, bridges the gap on adaptation, reimagines global finance, and delivers on loss and damage. It is built on common ground. It is strengthened by inclusivity. And it is reinforced by collaboration.”

The COP28 Presidency has been clear in its intention to ensure that the agreements made at COP28 are delivered and followed through to COP29 in Baku and COP30 in Belem, with mechanisms to track progress against implementation. Perhaps a ‘Triumvirate of the Willing’!

The next two years will be critical. The message of UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in Dubai was unequivocal: “At COP29, governments must establish a new climate finance goal, reflecting the scale and urgency of the climate challenge. And at COP30, they must come prepared with new nationally determined contributions that are economy-wide, cover all greenhouse gases and are fully aligned with the 1.5°C temperature limit.”

In the interim though on the road to Baku and Belem, in early 2025, countries must deliver new Nationally Determined Contributions, aimed at bringing every single commitment – on finance, adaptation, and mitigation – in line with a 1.5°C world. That surely will reveal the real intent of progress towards Net Zero and expose or reinforce any gaps or achievements in humanity’s ‘do-or-die’ climate action journey.

Fast Tracking Clean Energy Transition and Food Security Through Proactive Sustainable Finance and De-risking Solutions and Alliances

Are Multilateral Insurers and Private Credit and Investment Insurers adequately rising to the challenge of underwriting Climate Action risks and resilience? Due to a fragmented global regulatory architecture and competing taxonomies, and the seemingly contradictory demands of fossil fuel dependency to raise much-needed budget revenues or consumption for household and industrial electricity generation, do multilateral insurers and National export credit agencies (ECAs) need to revisit their climate finance and sustainability playbooks in the race towards Net Zero? Oussama Kaissi, Chief Executive Officer, ICIEC, emboldened by the Corporation’s newly launched Climate Change Strategy and ESG Framework, consider how Export Credit and Investment Insurance (ECII) can enhance the urgency and evolving and oft-competing demands of decarbonisation and just and clean energy transition against the background of geopolitical tensions, financing gaps, economic disruptions, inflationary pressures, rising inequality and an ongoing global Cost-of-Living Crisis?

While blended finance, Green, Social and Sustainability (GSS) bonds and to a lesser extent Sukuk, have proliferated at a rapid pace over the last few years and according to S&P, Global could reach a cumulative US$4 trillion by end 2023, export credit and investment insurance (ECII) hardly get a mention in the cornucopia of climate action reports and initiatives.

The tendency is to lump them together under the generic title of climate finance and risk mitigation solutions, making ECII the poor relation of the decarbonisation and sustainable finance landscape.

The general consensus is that ECAs are a critical link to support the rising ambition of governments and the private sector. While some ECII stakeholders have taken important steps to increase their support for the new green economy, the industry and their regulators are perceived as lacking greater ambition and action with more consistent methodologies and collaboration with the wider financial services sector.

Credit insurance acts as a catalyst that provides financing to the real economy across the globe. By protecting exporters and banks against the risk of non-payment, credit insurance enables cross-border trade and investment increasingly in climate-related business, inputs and projects. The Berne Union Members collectively provide payment risk capital worth US$2.5 trillion each year, insuring approximately 13% of the value of total global cross-border trade.

The availability of finance, liquidity and underwriting is not a problem. It is a question of matching the above with acceptable and bankable projects and transactions. On the flipside is the inadequate action to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss risks. A few weeks before COP28, a 34-strong international group of climate, environmental and consumer protection entities, including the Swiss-based WWF (Greening Financial Regulation Initiative), wrote a passionate, open letter calling on the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) to scale up regulatory action on climate and shift away from environmentally harmful economic activities.

The signatories strongly expressed “our deep concern that the IAIS is taking insufficient action to address the risks of climate change and nature loss and their implications for the insurance sector. Unfortunately, the global regulatory environment on insurance and climate-and environment related financial risk is not yet sufficiently developed to ensure a smooth transition to a net zero, nature positive financial system.”

The Open Letter makes uneasy reading for insurers and underwriters pertaining to the proliferation of climate-related events and transactions.

• Since 2017, the insured losses from natural disasters (mostly human-made climate disasters) averaged US$110 billion per year, more than double the average amount in the previous five years.
• Reinsurance and primary insurance rates have increased rapidly, but there are growing parts of the world where other countries risk becoming “uninsurable.”
• California’s former insurance commissioner, Dave Jones, warned recently, “I do believe we’re steadily marching towards an uninsurable future, not only in California but throughout the United States.”
• In Europe, the European insurance supervisor (EIOPA) estimates that only about a quarter of climate-related catastrophe losses are currently insured and this insurance protection gap could widen in the medium to long term as a result of climate change.
• This scenario also creates serious risks to the insurance industry itself.
• Current global insurance regulations are patchy at best.

Climate Risk Proliferation for Underwriters

Climate change mitigation is falling behind, given that greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector reached a record amount in 2022/23. Yet in spite of its powerful role as a global risk absorber and manager, the insurance industry, say the signatories is not using its influence to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. “Instead, it is adding fuel to the fire by underwriting the continued expansion of oil and gas extraction. As noted by the U.S. Treasury Department in a June 2023 report on climate-related risks for the insurance industry, the U.S. insurance industry’s corporate bond and equities investment exposure to high GHG-emitting industries is approximately US$439 billion, or 15% of those investments.”

The fact that fossil-fuel subsidies, according to the IMF, surged to a record US$7 trillion in 2022 as governments supported consumers and businesses during the global spike in energy prices caused by the Ukraine conflict and the economic recovery from the pandemic, remains another bottleneck in clean energy transition.

The signatories slate The Net Zero Insurance Alliance (NZIA), which was founded in 2021, for caving in to pressure from the fossil fuel lobby, under the pretence of anti-competition measures, which they claim, “poses great risks for an orderly transition in the insurance sector and requires regulators to urgently clarify the scope for collective industry action in the public interest.”

The IAIS should be commended for monitoring climate change as a key trend for the industry, setting up a disclosure workstream, and conducting consultations on updates to its guidance related to climate change. But the scale, pace and urgency are insufficient. Not surprisingly, the signatories recommend the IAIS to i) take a precautionary approach to addressing environmental risk, which remains a regulatory blind spot, ii) should offer best practice guidance to ensure that insurance companies adopt transition plans with short-, medium- and long-term targets and aligned with credible 1.5°C pathways, iii) not to let contributors to the crisis get public support, and iv) to rely on evidenced-based climate science.

With US$6.86 trillion in gross written premiums in 2021, insurance companies are an economic heavy weight with enormous potential to reduce the negative impact on climate change and nature loss through their underwriting business. Insurance regulators and supervisors have a critical leading role to play and can help advance insurance companies to reach global climate and biodiversity goals by aligning insurance regulation, policies and supervision to international best practice and ambitions.

Progress Out of Adversity

But, very often in adversity comes progressive initiatives. A Number of initiatives that have emerged out of COP28 could potentially be game changers in the role and ways de-risking solutions are contributing to the Net Zero ambitions. The first one is the launch of the Net Zero Export Credit Agencies Alliance (NZECAA) by a group of ECAs led by UK Export Finance (UKEF) under the aegis of the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP-FI) with the simple mandate of promoting the role of export credit in achieving net zero emissions by 2050 and limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in collaboration with the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ).

UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director, Inger Andersen could not have been more to the point at the launch of the Alliance. ECAs, she reminded, are in a strong position to deliver more sustainable global trade and to complement the work already being undertaken by the private finance sector, helping to address market gaps to deliver net-zero economies by 2050. “This Alliance will play an important role in supporting tangible economic transition and help countries implement their commitments under the Paris Agreement. Large private financial institutions are powerful, but they cannot deliver net-zero alone. Public finance is the missing piece in net-zero financial landscape. We need the full might of the global financial system to combat and adapt to climate change,” she maintained.

UKEF, with which ICIEC has a long-standing collaboration, recently unveiled multi-million-pound support for transactions supporting climate adaptation and sustainability across Africa and the Middle East, including a GBP226 million facility for the Iraqi Government to develop clean water and sewage treatment infrastructure in Hillah City.

UKEF has declared that it is committed to reaching net-zero in terms of its total financed emissions by 2050, it ended all new support for overseas fossil-fuel projects in 2021, except in very limited circumstances, and recently introduced more flexible and competitive terms for British exporters as part of the Government’s drive to encourage them to use and offer finance solutions and other options which are consistent with the Green Finance agenda in line with the UN SDGs and the Paris Net Zero ambitions. According to the British ECA, it can now offer longer repayment terms and more flexible repayment structures for an expanded range of renewable and green transactions, and for standard transactions.

ICIEC’s Climate Change and ESG Playbook

ICIEC similarly launched its Climate Change Policy and ESG Framework at COP28, which marks “the commencement of a transformative results-oriented process where ICIEC’s operations, insurance, de-risking, physical assets and human capital and focus are addressing the Climate Crisis at their core, based on the needs of ICIEC’s member countries, IsDB Group synergies, the role of the private sector in climate finance and industry best practice.”

ICIEC is committed to helping our 49 Member States achieve their development goals, including resilience, mitigation and adaptation to the threats posed by climate change. ICIEC cover is directed towards various sectors, with US$2.35 billion going specifically into clean energy initiatives such as solar energy systems and wind farms – assisting with their importation and use in national infrastructure projects. At COP28, IsDB President, H.E. Dr. Muhammad Al Jasser, unveiled a US$1 billion climate finance initiative for fragile and conflict-affected member countries over the next three years.

At the same time, ICIEC has granted approvals exceeding US$573 million in support of food security under the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Group Food Security Response Programme (FSRP), surpassing our initial commitment of US$500 million for the entire period from SH 2022 until 31 December 2025. ICIEC initiatives in this respect primarily facilitate financial transactions, facilitating the importation of essential agricultural commodities and inputs for agricultural projects, reinforcing resilience against potential food crises.

Collaboration with national, regional and international partners is a key component of ICIEC’s strategy, given the complex risk metrics involved in climate-related events. Earlier this year MUFG Securities EMEA plc structured a €1.247 billion financing package to enable institutional capital investors and syndicate lenders to collaboratively contribute to the package for Türkiye’s green Yerkoy Kayseri Highspeed Railway Project. The Project is backed by a coalition of four European ECAs led by UKEF.

ICIEC participated in this landmark transaction with an 8-year tenor by covering the risks of the Non-Honouring of Sovereign Financial Obligation (NHSFO) of the Ministry of Finance and Treasury of Türkiye of up to €134.1 million, to cover a Syndicated Financing Facility of the same amount led by MUFG Securities EMEA plc and comprising six banks including MUFG, Banco Santander, DZ Bank, Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale and ING Bank. The aim of the project is to improve the efficiency and adequacy of the transportation system in the region by addressing poor rail connectivity and the lack of alternative environmental transport modes. ICIEC played an instrumental role in this impactful transaction, confirming our unwavering commitment to supporting critical infrastructure developments in Türkiye and within ICIEC Member States.

The above developments also follow a change earlier this year to the OECD Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, which allows ECAS and Exim banks to offer greater incentives for climate-friendly transactions.

The export credit industry is hugely influential globally with up to US$28 trillion – comprising 80 to 90% – of international trade relying on export financing, much of it provided by governments via export credit agencies and export-import banks. It is the height of folly that governments, international agencies, the COP process and other stakeholders have hitherto failed to capitalise on what the ECII community can bring to the table beyond their vanilla de-risking and credit enhancement solutions. On the other hand, the ECII community and their promoters and shareholders should take some responsibility for this lack of upscaling, underwriting, collaboration and urgency in underwriting climate related and catastrophe risks.

It is noteworthy that the Berne Union Climate Working Group (BU CWG) which is doing important work in supporting the climate goals of the wider export credit community, has come up with a “refreshed BU CWG workplan for 2024” in the wake of the developments at COP28. At the same time, Export Finance for Future (E3F), an international coalition working to align public export finance with climate change and goals. In Dubai, E3F under the motto “Scale Up to Phase Out” confirmed in a debate that momentum is building in its efforts of “gathering a critical mass of countries ready to accelerate the progressive phasing out of Carbon-intensive projects and significantly increase the financial support to exporters’ projects compatible with Paris Climate Agreements”. E3F is also in the process of rolling out National Phase Out Plans for official export credit support for fossil fuels, inviting external monitoring by being transparent about our transactions and now going turbo on scaling up initiatives.

A Future of Proaction and Ambition?

Looking ahead, there are several other positives that indicate a much more proactive and ambitious role for the ECII community in promoting the green economy through climate transition and decarbonization initiatives.

In trade finance, in a post-Covid dispensation, there is a continued push for digitisation, transparency and automation in an environment with increasing regulatory and compliance requirements. In September 2023, the Electronic Trade Documents Act (ETDA) 2023 in the UK received Royal Assent in an effort to make Global Britain’s trade with partners all over the world more straightforward, efficient and sustainable, and which according to the British Government’s initial estimate could give the UK economy a GBP1.14 billion boost over the next decade through the trade documentation digitalisation.

Similarly, the introduction of ISO 20022 by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), as “a single standardisation approach (methodology, process, repository) to be used by all financial standards initiatives,” is a key development and challenge for the trade finance and credit insurance industry. ISO 20022 (MX), which comes into effect in November 2025, is the next generation of financial messaging standards, given its key characteristics of a common language with rich and structured data. The Swift MT format has been the standard for trade finance messages for the last four decades.

According to Trade Finance Global, (TFG), Swift (the world’s leading provider of secure financial messaging services) is “already in the process of migrating payment and cash management messages from the legacy MT format to MX. In November 2025, when the current MT and MX coexistence period is set to end, all Swift traffic for cross-border payments and reporting (CBPR+) will be on an ISO 20022 standard. As the payments and cash management industry is finding out in real time, there are benefits, challenges and costs associated with such a wholesale transition.

Another unexpected challenge is the consequences of the attacks on ships in the Red Sea and drought in the Panama Canal area that have more than quadrupled shipping prices moving goods since late 2023. Impacts could worsen should disruptions persist into the peak shipping season in the second half of 2024. Swiss Re Institute in its latest Insurance Insight, stressed that marine insurance contracts in affected areas are repricing higher or covers being adjusted, while some claims inflation is a further potential risk.

“For insurers, marine is one of the most impacted lines, as it selectively covers war and terrorism, though not delays. Covers have generally been held for travel through the Red Sea, but with case-by-case flexibility and significant increases in rates to account for the higher risk. Port congestion creates accumulation risks, while longer transit times mechanically raise insureds’ risk exposure, both factors that insurers may need to take into consideration. There are also risks to business interruption and related covers, including Credit & Surety. Exporters appear to be absorbing the delays and higher prices so far, but insured losses may rise if disruptions last longer or intensify. Stickier claims inflation is a risk if core goods inflation ticks up again.”

Increasing geopolitical risks may threaten trade through affected routes. More frequent droughts are likely to jeopardise transit volumes in the Panama Canal, and climate change is already affecting river shipping, as seen in the Rhine and Mississippi.

In the realm of economic recovery, resilience, de-risking, and inclusive growth, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stands as a pioneering force, steering its trajectory through a robust Digitalization and Technology Adoption Strategy. Here Raphael Fofana, Acting Head of the UAE office of the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC) in Dubai, delves into the transformative journey the UAE is undertaking in leveraging technology for a prosperous and inclusive future.

At the core of the UAE’s digital transformation lies a ground-breaking shift in e-Government initiatives catalysed by the visionary Smart Dubai project. This strategic undertaking represents more than a technological evolution; it signifies a reimagining of governance, where advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain are seamlessly integrated into public services. The Smart Dubai initiative stands as a testament to the nation’s commitment to innovation, efficiency, and transparency.

Artificial intelligence, with its advanced algorithms and machine learning capabilities, is revolutionizing governmental processes. Tasks are not only automated but optimized for precision, enhancing the overall efficacy of public service delivery. Concurrently, the integration of blockchain technology ensures the security and integrity of critical government data. Its decentralized nature creates an immutable ledger, instilling a new level of trust and setting unprecedented benchmarks for data reliability and security.

This digital evolution is not confined to efficiency gains alone; it is reshaping the very essence of governance by fostering transparency and accessibility. By making information readily available to the public, the UAE is setting new standards for open governance, where citizens can scrutinize government actions, fostering a culture of accountability. As ICIEC actively collaborates with government entities, our mission harmoniously aligns with the UAE’s vision, contributing to an ecosystem where advancements in e-Government become catalysts for economic growth and robust investment protection.

Insurtech Revolution 
The UAE’s unwavering commitment to technological innovation is notably evident in the insurance sector, where the convergence of insurance and technology, commonly referred to as Insurtech, is orchestrating a transformative shift. Insurtech has emerged as a dynamic force, reshaping the traditional landscape by integrating advanced technological solutions. Key among these advancements is the utilization of data analytics, which empowers insurers with the tools to conduct precise risk assessments.

This analytical prowess enables a more nuanced understanding of potential risks, enhancing decision-making processes and ultimately fortifying the resilience of the insurance sector in the face of evolving and complex risks.

Moreover, the adoption of blockchain technology within Insurtech initiatives brings an additional layer of security and transparency to insurance transactions. Blockchain ensures the integrity of contracts and facilitates secure, tamper-proof record-keeping, thereby fostering trust among stakeholders.

In this landscape of rapid technological evolution, Insurtech stands as a strategic frontier, embracing innovation to streamline operations, improve efficiency, and offer tailored solutions to the dynamic needs of businesses and individuals alike.

As a pivotal player in the realm of investment insurance, ICIEC is acutely aware of the transformative role technology plays in the de-risking process. Embracing these technological advancements aligns with our mission of supporting sustainable economic development by providing robust insurance solutions. In recognizing the synergies between Insurtech and investment protection, ICIEC continues to contribute significantly to the resilience and innovation of the insurance sector within the UAE and beyond.

Government Agencies, SWFs, and Development Banks 
The UAE’s strategic vision extends beyond individual efforts to encompass a collective, collaborative approach that actively engages government agencies, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), and development banks. This concerted effort reflects a commitment to fostering an environment conducive to growth and innovation. The collaboration between these entities forms a synergistic alliance, pooling resources and expertise to drive transformative initiatives that propel the nation forward.

In this collaborative landscape, government agencies play a pivotal role in setting the strategic direction, crafting policies, and providing regulatory frameworks that facilitate innovation and sustainable growth. Sovereign wealth funds, as strategic financial vehicles, contribute substantial resources to fuel economic development projects. Development banks, with their focus on financing initiatives that promote long-term economic growth, complement this synergy by providing crucial funding and expertise.

ICIEC actively participates in and mirrors this collective effort through collaborative endeavors with government bodies. Our collaboration aligns seamlessly with the overarching national strategy, working hand in hand to safeguard investments and encourage economic development. By forging these partnerships, ICIEC contributes to the nation’s economic resilience, fostering an environment where collective innovation and collaboration lay the foundation for sustained growth and prosperity. This collaborative model not only amplifies the impact of individual initiatives but also exemplifies the UAE’s dedication to a holistic and inclusive approach to national development.

Banking Sector’s Digital Leap
The pervasive digital transformation sweeping across industries has reached the very heart of the financial sector, inducing a profound shift within the banking industry. This transformative journey encompasses a spectrum of advancements, ranging from the ubiquity of mobile banking to strategic fintech partnerships, as financial institutions actively embrace technology to redefine their service offerings. The motive behind this shift is clear – to provide more efficient, secure, and customer-centric financial services that align with the expectations of a digitally savvy clientele.
Mobile banking has become a cornerstone, empowering customers with the convenience of managing their finances on-the-go. Simultaneously, strategic collaborations with fintech entities inject innovation into traditional banking practices, fostering a dynamic landscape that adapts to the evolving needs of the modern market. These technological integrations not only enhance operational efficiency but also elevate the overall customer experience.

The alignment of ICIEC’s mission with this financial sector transformation is palpable. As a key player in investment insurance, ICIEC recognizes the symbiotic relationship between its mission and the ongoing digitalization in banking. The digital transformation contributes significantly to the de-risking of financial transactions, introducing sophisticated risk management mechanisms that bolster the security and integrity of investment activities. In turn, this proactive embrace of technology within the banking sector promotes investment protection, aligning seamlessly with ICIEC’s commitment to facilitating sustainable economic development through robust insurance solutions.

Credit and Investment Insurers in the Digital Era
Within the intricate fabric of the economic resilience framework, credit and investment insurers emerge as pivotal players actively harnessing the power of digitalization. This strategic integration of advanced technologies is instrumental in reshaping traditional approaches, focusing on streamlining processes, enhancing risk assessment methodologies through data analytics, and ensuring agile responses to the ever-evolving challenges within the dynamic economic landscape.

The digitization of credit and investment insurance processes introduces unprecedented efficiencies. By automating and optimizing workflows, insurers can provide quicker, more responsive services, reducing turnaround times and enhancing the overall customer experience. The utilization of data analytics amplifies risk assessment capabilities, enabling a more nuanced understanding of potential risks and allowing for tailored, data-driven solutions that resonate with the specific needs of businesses and investors.

In this digital era, where economic landscapes are characterized by rapid changes and uncertainties, the commitment to innovation is paramount. ICIEC exemplifies this commitment by mirroring the industry’s embrace of digitalization. We actively engage in providing comprehensive insurance solutions that align seamlessly with the digital aspirations of our stakeholders. Through technology-driven initiatives, ICIEC not only fortifies its role as a key player in investment insurance but also contributes to shaping a resilient economic environment that thrives amidst the complexities of the contemporary business landscape. The synthesis of innovation and digitalization within the realm of credit and investment insurance lays the foundation for a more adaptive, responsive, and robust economic framework.

Corporate Sector’s Digital Drive:
The corporate sector in the UAE stands at the forefront of the ongoing digital evolution, transcending the role of a mere observer to become an active participant in this transformative journey. Across various facets, from supply chain optimization to elevated customer engagement strategies, businesses are embracing technology to enhance operational efficiency and navigate the complexities of the modern marketplace. This proactive adoption of technological advancements not only fosters innovation within individual enterprises but collectively contributes to fortifying the overall resilience of the economy.

Supply chain optimization, facilitated by digital technologies, ensures a more streamlined and responsive flow of goods and services. Businesses leverage data analytics, artificial intelligence, and blockchain to enhance the visibility and efficiency of their supply chains, thereby reducing costs and minimizing disruptions. Simultaneously, the incorporation of technology in customer engagement strategies enhances communication, personalization, and overall satisfaction, fostering lasting relationships and loyalty.

As a stalwart supporter of international trade and investment, ICIEC recognizes the strategic importance of a digitally empowered corporate sector in achieving sustained economic sustainability. The digital transformation of businesses not only aligns with ICIEC’s mission but also plays a crucial role in fostering an environment where international trade and investment can flourish. Through its commitment to providing comprehensive insurance solutions, ICIEC actively contributes to the resilience and growth of the digitally empowered corporate landscape, ensuring a sustainable and dynamic economic future for the UAE.

Benefits to the UAE’s Economy and Development Agenda:
The Digitalization and Technology Adoption Strategy of the UAE stands as a catalyst for a multitude of benefits that extend beyond mere efficiency gains and cost savings. At its core, the strategy creates an environment that acts as a magnet for foreign direct investment (FDI). By leveraging advanced technologies, the UAE positions itself as an attractive destination for global investors seeking a dynamic and digitally mature ecosystem.

The strategy’s emphasis on efficiency translates into substantial cost savings for businesses, enabling them to operate with increased effectiveness and competitiveness. Moreover, the digital ecosystem created by this strategy serves as a testament to the nation’s commitment to innovation, fostering an environment that not only retains existing investors but also entices new ones. Foreign direct investment is drawn to the prospect of operating within a technologically advanced and forward-thinking landscape.

In this transformative landscape, the role of ICIEC is paramount. The Corporation acts as a crucial facilitator, providing insurance solutions that align seamlessly with the digital ambitions of investors. By mitigating risks associated with investments, ICIEC contributes significantly to sustainable economic development and resilience. As a strategic partner in this digital journey, ICIEC plays a pivotal role in ensuring that the benefits of the UAE’s Digitalization and Technology Adoption Strategy are not only realized but also safeguarded, fostering a robust and secure investment environment that propels the nation toward enduring economic prosperity.

Emerging Risks and Challenges:
As the UAE boldly strides into the vast landscape of the digital future, it encounters a spectrum of challenges intrinsic to this transformative journey. Foremost among these challenges are the persistent threats posed by cybersecurity vulnerabilities, data privacy concerns, and the imperative need for adaptive regulatory frameworks. The interconnected nature of the digital realm exposes entities to evolving cyber threats, necessitating a vigilant approach to safeguard sensitive information and critical infrastructure. Data privacy concerns further intensify as digitalization amplifies the volume and complexity of personal and corporate data.

Addressing these challenges requires not only technological fortification but also adaptive regulatory measures that keep pace with the dynamic digital landscape. Recognizing the multifaceted risks inherent in the digital era, ICIEC proactively engages in a continuous dialogue.

This proactive approach aims to craft innovative insurance solutions tailored to address the emerging challenges of the digital age effectively. By doing so, ICIEC fulfils its pivotal role in providing a secure environment for investments, reassuring stakeholders that their ventures are shielded against the complexities of the ever-evolving digital risk landscape. In this commitment to risk mitigation, ICIEC not only safeguards investments but also contributes to the overall resilience and sustainability of the UAE’s digital ambitions.

In conclusion, the UAE’s Digitalization and Technology Adoption Strategy heralds a new era of economic prosperity, resilience, de-risking, and inclusion. As ICIEC aligns its mission with the UAE’s vision, we recognize the transformative power of technology in shaping a robust and inclusive future. The collaborative efforts across sectors, coupled with ICIEC’s commitment to investment protection, position the UAE as a global leader in navigating the digital frontier, ensuring a dynamic and resilient economic landscape for generations to come.

Embracing Zero-Trust Cybersecurity

 A Comprehensive Approach to Protecting and Enhancing

Resilience of the Modern Organization

The Evolution of Cybersecurity

In today’s interconnected world, where data breaches and cyberattacks have become commonplace, traditional perimeter-based security measures are no longer sufficient to protect organizations from advanced threats. Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) and insider threats have demonstrated that the traditional approach is no longer effective. The consequences of a breach in this context can be devastating, leading to data theft, financial losses, and reputational damage. The need for a more robust and adaptable approach to cybersecurity has led to the rise of the Zero-Trust approach.

The Zero-Trust approach challenges the conventional wisdom of “trust but verify” by assuming that no entity, whether inside or outside the network, can be trusted implicitly. Instead, it advocates the complete abandonment of the implicit trust in any entity, whether inside or outside an organization’s network. This approach assumes that no device, user, or application can be trusted by default, and every access request must be authenticated, authorized, and continuously monitored, regardless of its source.

The Zero-Trust Approach: Unravelling the Core Principles

Zero-Trust is not just another buzzword  , it’s a comprehensive and adaptable security framework designed to address the evolving threat landscape. To understand the Zero-Trust approach better, let’s delve into its core principles:

• Never Trust, Always Verify: The fundamental premise of Zero-Trust is to reject the assumption that anything, or anyone, is inherently trustworthy. Instead, it promotes continuous verification of every user, device, application, and network connection trying to access resources within the network. Users and devices must authenticate themselves before gaining access to resources. Multi-factor authentication (MFA) is commonly used to strengthen identity verification.
• Least Privilege Access: Zero-Trust minimizes the privileges granted to users and devices. Users are only given access to the resources necessary for their job, limiting lateral movement within the network for potential attackers. Access privileges are granted on a need-to-know basis. Users and systems only receive the minimum permissions necessary to perform their tasks.
• Micro-Segmentation: In a Zero-Trust architecture, the network is divided into smaller segments, each with specific security policies. This way, even if a breach occurs in one segment, it is contained, preventing lateral movement.
• Real-time Monitoring: Continuous monitoring of user and device behavior, network traffic, and system activity is a cornerstone of Zero-Trust. Any deviations from the established norms trigger alerts and potential security responses.
• Contextual Access Control: Access decisions are based on contextual information, such as user identity, device health, location, and the sensitivity of the data or resource being accessed. Access is dynamically adjusted based on changing conditions. All access requests are explicitly approved or denied based on policies, not based on trust or location.

To implement a Zero-Trust cybersecurity approach, organizations need to consider several key components and strategies:

• Identity and Access Management (IAM): A robust IAM system is essential for verifying the identity of users and devices. It includes Single Sign-On (SSO), Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA), and role-based access control.
• Network Micro-Segmentation: This involves dividing the network into smaller, isolated segments or zones. Each segment can have its own set of access controls and security policies, reducing the lateral movement of threats.
• Security Analytics and Threat Detection: Utilizing advanced security analytics and machine learning, organizations can continuously monitor network traffic and user behavior to detect anomalies and potential threats in real-time.
• Application Security: Applications must be secured at the code level, and access should be controlled based on a user’s privileges and the least privilege principle.
• Secure Access Service Edge (SASE): SASE is an emerging technology integrating network security and Wide-Area Networking (WAN) capabilities. It extends Zero-Trust principles to remote users and cloud services.

Benefits of Zero-Trust

Implementing a Zero-Trust approach offers numerous advantages that significantly enhance an organization’s security posture:

• Minimized Attack Surface: The attack surface is significantly reduced by implementing least privilege access and micro-segmentation. Attackers have difficulty moving laterally within the network and accessing critical assets.
• Improved Data Protection: Zero-Trust ensures that sensitive data is protected from unauthorized access. Access controls adapt to changing conditions and user behavior in real time, reducing the risk of data breaches.
• Enhanced Security Posture: The continuous monitoring and real-time access control provided by Zero-Trust allow organizations to respond to threats quickly and effectively. This proactive approach to security minimizes the impact of potential breaches.
• Adaptability: Zero-Trust is scalable and can be tailored to an organization’s needs. Whether a small business or a large organization, the principles of Zero-Trust can be applied effectively.
• Compliance Alignment and Risk Mitigation: Many industry regulations and standards, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), require organizations to implement strong security controls. Zero-Trust helps organizations align with these compliance requirements. Organizations adopting a Zero-Trust model can better protect sensitive data and reduce the risk of data breaches and associated financial and reputational damage.
• User-Friendly: Despite its robust security measures, Zero-Trust can be implemented to minimize disruption to user experiences, ensuring that security doesn’t hinder productivity

Challenges in Implementing Zero-Trust

While the benefits of a Zero-Trust approach are compelling, implementing it is not without its challenges:

• Complexity: Transitioning to a Zero-Trust architecture can be complex and disruptive. It may require changes in infrastructure, policies, and a cultural shift within the organization. Organizations must carefully plan and execute this transition to avoid service disruptions.
• Integration: Integrating Zero-Trust into existing systems and processes can be challenging. Legacy systems may not easily support the principles of Zero-Trust, requiring additional investments in technology and training.
• User Experience: The strict access controls and continuous verification can sometimes hinder user experience. Organizations must strike a balance between security and usability.
• Cost: The initial investment in Zero-Trust technology and training can be high, particularly for smaller organizations with limited resources. The investment in new technologies and training can be significant. However, the long-term benefits often outweigh the upfront costs.
• Change Management: Adopting a Zero-Trust approach often requires a cultural shift within the organization. Employees may resist additional security measures, such as MFA and more frequent authentication requests, which can slow their workflow. Employees need to understand and embrace the new security mindset.
• Skill Shortages: Finding and retaining cybersecurity professionals with expertise in Zero-Trust can be challenging, as the demand for these skills is rising.

Zero-Trust in Action: Practical Use Cases

To illustrate the real-world applications of Zero-Trust, consider a few use cases where organizations can successfully adopt this approach:

• Cloud Security: As more organizations migrate their services to the cloud, Zero-Trust provides a secure way to access cloud resources. Users and devices are continuously authenticated and authorized before connecting to cloud-based applications and data.
• Remote Work: The rise of remote work has created new security challenges. Zero-Trust allows organizations to secure remote access to corporate resources, ensuring that only authorized users with the proper credentials can access sensitive data and applications.
• Mobile Device Security: In the age of “Bring Your Own Device” (BYOD), Zero-Trust helps organizations secure mobile devices. Users are authenticated, and their devices are checked for compliance with security policies before accessing corporate resources.
• Insider Threat Mitigation: Zero-Trust is effective in mitigating insider threats. Employees with valid credentials are continuously monitored to detect unusual behaviour or data access, reducing the risk of insider data breaches.
• Network Security: Traditional network security often relies on perimeter defences. Zero-Trust takes a more holistic approach by applying security controls at the network level, with real-time monitoring and access control.
• IoT Security: The proliferation of IoT devices presents new security challenges. Zero-Trust can help by ensuring that IoT devices are authenticated, authorized, and segregated from critical systems to prevent potential threats.

As the cybersecurity landscape continues to evolve, Zero-Trust is expected to become the standard approach for securing organizations of all sizes. The principles of least privilege, continuous monitoring, and strict access control will remain central to safeguarding against cyber threats. Additionally, the following trends will likely shape the future of Zero-Trust:

• Identity and Access Management (IAM) Solutions: IAM solutions are crucial in verifying user identities and enforcing access policies. They are integral to Zero-Trust architecture.
• Integration with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML): AI and ML will play a more significant role in threat detection and anomaly identification within the Zero-Trust framework.
• Blockchain: Blockchain can be used to create a tamper-proof audit trail of access and changes to sensitive data. This ensures data integrity and accountability within a Zero-Trust network.
• Software-Defined Perimeter (SDP): SDP solutions create a secure and isolated network overlay, ensuring that only authorized users and devices can access network resources. This technology simplifies the implementation of Zero-Trust principles.
• Convergence of Network and Security: Zero-Trust and security networking will merge further, with solutions like Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) becoming more prevalent.
• Industry-Specific Adoption: Different industries like insurance, healthcare, banking, and finance will tailor their Zero-Trust implementations to meet their specific regulatory and security requirements.
• Zero-Trust as a Service: Managed service providers will offer Zero-Trust to help organizations implement and maintain this complex security model.
• User Education: Increasing user awareness and education on Zero-Trust principles will be essential to minimize user resistance and ensure successful adoption.

In today’s digital age, organizations need to adopt and adapt to the principles of Zero-Trust to safeguard their valuable assets and ensure their continued success. Zero-Trust is a buzzword and a strategic approach to cybersecurity, becoming the standard for modern organizations facing ever-evolving cyber threats.

While implementing Zero-Trust can be challenging and complex, the benefits, including enhanced security, improved compliance, and risk mitigation, make it a worthwhile investment. Many successful organizations are already reaping the rewards of this approach and maintaining the trust of their customers and stakeholders in an increasingly digital and interconnected world.

Technology and digitalisation possess significant potential in addressing the increasing demand for safe and nutritious food, efficient natural resource management, fostering high-quality productivity growth, and contributing to the attainment of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Agenda. But the state of digitalisation in agriculture, water, and food systems in low-and-medium-countries (LMICs) in particular, varies widely, with ongoing efforts to leverage technology for sustainable development. Maher Salman, Team Lead, Agricultural Water Management, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN, in an exclusive interview discusses the importance of digital innovation in agriculture, water management, and building resilience in food systems, and emphasises its distinctive capabilities to bridge the rural-urban gap, create employment opportunities, enhance resilience in rural areas, and empower youth and women by providing access to information, technology, and markets.

ICIEC Quarterly Newsletter: Technology is critical to affecting change and driving development. In agriculture, it is said that digitalisation could be a game changer in boosting productivity, profitability, and resilience to climate change. An inclusive, digitally enabled agricultural transformation could help achieve meaningful livelihood improvements inter alia for smallholder farmers and pastoralists and could drive greater engagement in agriculture of women and youth and employment. What is the state of digitalisation in agriculture, water, and food systems in the low-and-medium-income countries (LMICs)? What is the economics of digitalisation in agriculture?

Maher Salman: Technologies and digitalisation possess significant potential in addressing the increasing demand for safe and nutritious food, efficient natural resource management, and fostering high-quality productivity growth. Furthermore, they play a crucial role in ensuring inclusivity and contributing to the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals. Digital innovation in particular has distinctive capabilities to bridge the rural-urban gap, create employment opportunities, enhance resilience in rural areas, and empower youth and women by providing access to information, technology, and markets.

The state of digitalisation in agriculture, water, and food systems in low- and medium-countries varied widely over the most recent years, with ongoing efforts to leverage technology for sustainable development. Digitalisation in these sectors holds significant potential for addressing key challenges linked to agricultural development, and hence to broader economic growth for several countries whereby agriculture is the leading sector. The status of digitalisation in these contexts is dynamic and shows both opportunities and challenges.

The adoption rate, for instance, varies across regions and countries, whereby some areas have made significant strides, while others may be lagging due to factors such as infrastructure limitations, education, and access to technology. Furthermore, technology in agriculture is becoming more and more a critical aid in decision-making. The collection and analysis of data is increasingly informing management processes, as well as investment decisions.

The economics of digitalisation in agriculture, on the other hand, involves a delicate balance of investment and returns. While initial costs are associated with adopting digital tools, the potential benefits include increased efficiency, improved market access, and elevated livelihoods for smallholder farmers and pastoralists. The inclusive nature of digitally enabled agricultural transformation also holds the promise of engaging a broader range of stakeholders, including women and youth, offering not only improved economic prospects but contributing to broader social and employment objectives.

In the face of economic slowdown and uncertainty, FAO has been playing a key role in advocating for the use of digital technologies to transform agrifood systems and agribusinesses. This involves advising on and promoting a policy agenda to address the digital divide and extend digital benefits on a mass scale, with a commitment to leaving no one behind. As part of its Digital Agriculture Program Priority Area, FAO has already initiated various programs to translate this vision into tangible support for its Member States.

To further advance this trajectory and bring digital innovation’s benefits closer to people, technology-based solutions need to be taken at scale and developed with inputs from final beneficiaries and local partners. FAO has been working in this direction, for instance, in Lebanon, with the development of the BlueHouse-Leb application that provides timely information on the irrigation needs of crops in unheated plastic greenhouses and thus contributes to improve the farm profitability and household-level food security of farmers.

What are the biggest threats, challenges and needs for sustainable agricultural development, quality land improvement and management, water and irrigation systems management, crop and land water productivity – in other words, for sustainable agri-food system transformation?

The sustainability and resilience of agri-food systems is seriously under threat unless current trends of drivers that are affecting them do change. An increase of food crises can be expected if we do not act immediately to transform the way we produce our food. Factors like the growing population and urbanization, economic uncertainties, poverty and disparities, conflicts, intensified competition for natural resources, are causing significant disruptions in socioeconomic structures and harmful effects on environmental systems.

Furthermore, the escalating threat of climate change, posing risks to crop yields, water availability, and overall land productivity poses serious challenges to the pursuit of sustainable agricultural development. Ensuring sustainable land management is hindered by factors such as soil degradation, deforestation, and inadequate land-use planning. The effective management of water and irrigation systems, critical for agricultural productivity, faces challenges related to water scarcity, inefficient irrigation practices, and the need for sustainable water resource governance.

Additionally, achieving optimal crop water productivity is impeded by the lack of access to advanced agricultural technologies, limited farmer education, and unequal distribution of resources. The overarching need lies in developing holistic approaches that integrate climate-resilient practices, advance sustainable land management, and promote efficient water resource utilization. The 2022 FAO “The Future of Food and Agriculture” report identifies four key triggers for the transformation of agri-food systems toward these objectives: improved governance; increased consumer awareness; better income and wealth distribution; widespread technological, social, and institutional innovations.

Moreover, the implementation of appropriate public strategies and policies, involving the active participation of all stakeholders are crucial. Addressing these challenges requires collaborative efforts, technology dissemination, policy support, and capacity building to foster a sustainable agri-food system transformation that is resilient, equitable, and environmentally sound.

The world is plagued by a cornucopia of negative metrics which tend to undermine progress towards achieving the 17 UN SDGs, of which sustainable agriculture, food security and universal digitalisation are key goals. I refer to policy inertia; lack of convergence on trade policies and tariffs; hidden protectionism through subsidies and other barriers to market entry; national interest; supply chain disruptions, land degradation and water pollution due to conflict, civil unrest, terrorism, polluting heavy industries, illegal mining, and logging; rising inequalities, and of course the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. What is the real economy, social, health and opportunity cost lost, and how do we future proof such challenges?

The number of challenges indeed poses formidable obstacles to the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in the domains of sustainable agriculture, food security, and universal digitalization. As pointed out by the UN Secretary-General and confirmed by the FAO report “Tracking Progress on Food and Agriculture-related SDG Indicators 2023”, many SDGs are off-track, including those to which agri-food systems are expected to contribute.

Issues like policy inertia, divergent trade policies, and hidden protectionism through subsidies are impeding global progress. Additionally, disruptions in supply chains, land degradation, water pollution from various sources including conflict, civil unrest, terrorism, and polluting industries intensify the complexity. The exacerbation of inequalities and the profound impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic further compound these challenges. The real costs, spanning the economy, society, and health sectors are highly significant, but so are the opportunities.

To future-proof against these challenges, a comprehensive approach is needed. This involves fostering international collaboration to address policy gaps, promoting transparent trade policies, and develop management and technical capacities of stakeholders at different levels. Moreover, investing in resilient supply chains, sustainable practices, and leveraging digital technologies for equitable access to resources are crucial steps. Building robust multipurpose infrastructures for both health and agricultural uses, and implementing social safety nets can enhance resilience, ensuring a more inclusive and sustainable future despite the multifaceted challenges we are confronted with.

The role of water is highlighted in the theme, “Water is life, Water is food. Leave no one behind,” of World Food Day 2023. There are over 2.4 billion people in water-stressed countries and 600 million reliant on aquatic food systems who face pollution, ecosystem degradation, and climate change impacts. Water scarcity, shortages and rationing are on the increase, and no country, irrespective of economic status and wealth, is spared. How did we get it so wrong, and in a world of poly-crises with competing demands for finance, how are we going to finance the remedial mechanisms required?

The thematic emphasis posed on water in this year World Food Day underscores the critical role of water in global food security. The statistics of over 2.4 billion people in water-stressed nations and 20% decline in the availability of freshwater resources are alarming. The escalating challenges of water scarcity, shortages, and accessibility are pervasive, and affect populations across nations and along economic spectrums. The question of how we reached this critical juncture prompts reflection on past resource management and policy decisions. In the contemporary context of poly-crises and competing financial demands, financing the necessary remedial mechanisms becomes a paramount concern.

Addressing water-related challenges requires innovative, collaborative solutions, a reallocation of financial resources, and a commitment to sustainable practices to ensure equitable access to water, safeguard aquatic ecosystems, and mitigate the impacts of climate change. The urgency of the situation calls for a global commitment to responsible water management, transcending economic boundaries to leave no one behind in the quest for water security and sustainable food systems. Agriculture, as the largest consumer of freshwater, has the biggest potential for impact, by changing the ways we produce our food.

In terms of governance, we need to strengthen partnerships between governments, researchers, business, and civil society to design science and evidence-based policies and improve coordination among sectors for better planning and management of water resources. As for financial solutions, more investment are required to enhance the efficiency of water resources and the development of irrigation systems based on ground-truth data, to be made available through accessible knowledge platforms.

Global water demand is likely to grow in the next three decades due to agriculture intensification, population growth, urbanization, and climate change. In water-stress regions, future demand will require the reallocation of 25 to 40 percent of water from lower to higher productivity and employment-oriented activities. These reallocations are likely to come from the agriculture sector due to its high share of current water use. Are you confident that new actions such as Smart Irrigation, Smart Wash, Land and Water Rehabilitation, Soil Enrichment will help to enhance increase water use efficiency, especially in irrigation, and enhance agricultural production and productivity?

The projection of increasing global water demand over the next three decades, driven by factors such as agricultural intensification, population growth, urbanization, and climate change, underscores the imperative for innovative solutions. The World Bank estimates that between 25 to 40 percent of water will need to be re-allocated from lower to higher productivity and employment-oriented activities in water-stressed regions.
Agriculture, once more can play a pivotal role and the FAO Strategic Framework hence indicates the need to increase global agricultural production by at least 40 percent by 2050, given the limited availability of water resources. Initiatives like the ones mentioned holds promise in enhancing water use efficiency and boosting agricultural production and productivity. In particular, the Smart Irrigation-Smart WASH approach, which was promoted under my lead by the Land and Water Division of FAO, addresses the concept of multiple water use and proposes solutions to enhance irrigation and provide WASH facilities to vulnerable communities, thus, responding to the critical needs in times of pandemic crisis.

With the Covid-19 emergency behind us, our focus is redirected to irrigation and its development to support the most efficient management of water resources. The “Irrigation Mapping of need and potential” initiative aims at supporting countries to mobilize sufficient resources for irrigation development and to sustain sound irrigation strategies with well-justified, prepared, and targeted action plans.

The objective is to ensure that irrigation meets actual needs, leverages untapped potential, and accommodates potential future scenarios, planning and decision-making processes. The initiative is developed by FAO through a broad partnership, including global and national stakeholders who share similar concerns about the need to enhance irrigation efficiency and are ready to promote effective solutions in countries worldwide.

In one of your recent papers, ‘Enabling pathways for intensifying drought finance flows’, you seem to suggest an important correlation between digitalisation and financial actors and recipients, and information management as the enabler of this process. Technology needs assessment, you stressed, can lead to the identification of bankable projects and support investors in establishing portfolios. You also mention customer clustering and value chain management. Making projects bankable, especially in drought prevention and mitigation is dependent on a whole range of metrics which are not readily evident in LMICs – credit enhancement, de-risking solutions, integrated policies and so on. Given that droughts are an increasing phenomenon in FAO member states, what is the outlook for increased drought finance and underwriting of the associated risks?

The report is formulated under the framework of the “Enabling Activities for Implementing UNCCD COP Drought Decisions.” project, executed in partnership with the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and financially supported by the Global Environment Facility (GEF).

The primary focus of the publication is to delve into the complexities, alternatives, and mechanisms associated with drought finance. It is meant as a contribution to the creation of a conducive framework for the comprehensive management of drought, aligning with the overarching goal of integrated drought management. In the publication a number of short-term and readily implemented strategies are presented as pathways to drive drought finance forward, which include information management, digitalization, drought awareness, technology needs assessment, customer clustering and value chain management.

Recognizing the complexities inherent in drought prevention and mitigation projects, such alternative enablers of drought finance should be considered, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where metrics like credit enhancement, de-risking solutions, and integrated policies are not always available. The growing recognition of the urgency and severity of drought occurrences confirms the need for increased drought finance and underwriting of associated risks, but the outlook is still far from the requirement.

Digitalization, coupled with innovative financial instruments, has the potential to unlock new avenues for financing. Moreover, the focus on customer clustering and value chain management contributes to creating a conducive environment for making drought-related projects more bankable. The imperative lies in sustained collaboration, international partnerships, and continued efforts to bridge financial gaps, ultimately fortifying the resilience of member states in the face of escalating drought challenges.

Digitalisation is a source of new growth and new efficiencies but also of new risks. The talk is about smart agriculture, precision agriculture and building agri-resilience through greater digitalisation. Risks include policy, market, water, investment, technology, cyber and insurance risks. At the same time, increased dependency on digital infrastructure especially in large-scale food systems, makes such assets more vulnerable to business interruption and cyberattacks. How do you mitigate these risks, especially for LMICs? Is targeted involvement and innovation of credit and investment insurance a potential answer?

FAO promotes inclusive and adapted innovative technologies, including digitalisation for sustainable production and improved market access, as key accelerators for the sustainable transformation of agri-food systems. There is considerable optimism that the integration of digitalization into agri-food systems, encompassing aspects like input management, disease control, supply chain management, and automation, holds the potential to enhance operational efficiency and concurrently reduce environmental impacts.

The infusion of information as a valuable resource has paved the way for big data platforms to enter the agri-food landscape, however, potentially assuming dominant positions. The issue has progressively come under the UN radar, especially for LMICs, as highlighted in the 2020 Report by the Secretary-General. This transition has given rise to novel and disruptive business models, particularly evident in the shifts observed since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, concerns have emerged regarding the concentration of both big data and analytical capabilities in the hands of a select few entities. Without appropriate regulation, this concentration threatens to accelerate power imbalances, foster greater inequality, and marginalize impoverished and unskilled workers. Rural families and farmers, in LMICs and worldwide, are particularly at risk, as they lack the digital competences to stay updated in increasingly digitalized food markets and their employment opportunities are limited. In the light of these considerations the importance of carefully managing the integration of digital technologies to ensure equitable outcomes in agri-food systems emerges clearly, and so does the need to keep looking for suitable answers.

Global Trade and Digitalisation Prospects – Growth but Slower Growth

Global trade has supposedly been a force for economic recovery, resilience and near normalisation in the wake of a receding COVID-19 pandemic. But in 2022, says the latest World Trade Statistical Review (WTSR) 2023 of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), global trade has lost momentum, largely due to the supply chain disruptions due to the conflict in Ukraine and global economic shocks, including high inflation, the inevitable monetary tightening, and widespread debt distress. But can digitalisation and technology kick start trade and FDI flows recovery to pre-pandemic and its associated economic stability levels in a world of increasing and polymorphous uncertainties? Mushtak Parker explores the latest developments and prospects for digitalized global trade, especially in ICIEC member states.

There is no doubt that the prospects for global trade and investment over the short-to-medium term at best, are mixed, ranging from subdued to weak growth given the numerous downside risks exacerbated by the on-going conflict in Ukraine and, in recent weeks, the conflagration in the Middle East.

“Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,” says WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, “we were accustomed to strong growth in global trade, which typically exceeded the rate of GDP growth. Even at the height of the pandemic, trade remained relatively resilient, and we saw a powerful rebound in 2021 as the global economy reopened and economic activity picked up. Since 2022, we have been following a different trajectory, with slower trade growth due to the disruption to supply chains in, for example, the energy and agricultural sectors as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, and due to broader geopolitical tensions elevated global inflation and high interest rates, among other causes.”

Despite these shifts, she adds, the role of trade, as well as trade and supply chain finance products, is more important than ever. As the geopolitical and economic environment becomes more challenging, access to liquidity and risk mitigation is increasingly valued. In addition, the desire – and need – to digitise has accelerated innovation in the trade and supply chain finance space. Her optimism that “global trade growth has remained positive,” on the back of a slow-down in its underlying growth trajectory, is tempered by the stark reality that trade growth remains weak in the near term into 2023 due “to numerous downside risks, from geopolitical tensions to potential financial instability, which are clouding the medium-term outlook for both trade and overall output.”

Data dichotomy and overload lends itself to a morass of interpretations enough to suit almost any narrative in this highly complex global trade matrix. Take, for instance, the ‘volume versus value’ metric across a spectrum of cohorts – merchandise trade, intermediate trade, trade in goods and services, trade in manufacturing goods and so on. In volume terms, world merchandise trade rose by 2.7% in 2022, which is well below the 12.4% growth in value terms. This was largely reflected by the effect of high global commodity prices, which continues to affect consumers all over the world, but disproportionately in developing countries, as a cost-of-living crisis continues to bite because of stubborn food and energy price inflation. Trade in goods and services amounted to US$31 trillion in 2022, a 13% rise year-on-year. While trade in goods exceeded pre-pandemic levels already in 2021, trade in services caught up in 2022.

Any complacency over a receding pandemic and its impact on global trade too could be misplaced. The latest World Health Organisation (WHO) update on COVID-19 on 3^rd August reported over one million new cases and over 3,100 deaths globally in the month of July 2023. The pandemic, at the end of July 2023, has seen over 768 million confirmed cases and over 6.9 million deaths globally. “Currently, reported cases do not accurately represent infection rates due to the reduction in testing and reporting globally. During this 28-day period, 46% (107 of 234) of countries and territories reported at least one case to WHO – a proportion that has been declining since mid-2022,” said WHO.

For a multilateral insurer such as ICIEC, global trade should also be considered in the context of food security, nutrition and global hunger – helping to alleviate it in member states, some of which are the poorest on earth, being a core mandate. The latest State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report, published jointly in mid-July by five UN specialized agencies, reveals that 735 million people are currently facing hunger, compared to 613 million in 2019. This represents an increase of 122 million people compared to 2019, before the pandemic.

“If trends remain as they are, the UN Sustainable Development Goal 2 of ending hunger by 2030 will not be reached. Indeed, it is projected that almost 600 million people will still be facing hunger in 2030. While some areas have made some progress in hunger reduction, there are many places in the world facing deepening food crises. Africa remains the worst affected region with one in five people facing hunger on the continent, more than twice the global average,” concludes the SOFI report. Similarly, FAO (the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN) recently warned that global food commodity prices rose in July, influenced by the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and new Indian export restrictions on rice.

African Challenges and Arab Development Finance Support

Not surprisingly, least-developed countries (LDCs), especially in Africa, in general, are faced with the biggest challenges in trade flows and dynamics, beholden to anachronistic world trade rules to the detriment of LDCs – a major failure of the global trade system. In 2022, for instance, resource rich Africa accounted for less than 1% share of world exports.

Even where exports of goods and services from LDCs increased by 31% between 2019 and 2022, this was more to do with a greater upside of 41% in value terms, once again reflecting higher global commodity prices. Africa’s trade deficit in intermediate goods (IG) – inputs used to produce a final product – shrank to US$4.4 billion in 2022. This is partly due to growth in its exports of IG, which totalled US$292 billion in 2022, an increase of 47% compared with its pre-COVID-19 level in 2019. Again, the rise in value terms is due to high commodity prices.

The fact that Africa accounted for only 14% of intra-African merchandise trade in 2022 (down from 16% in 2018) – the lowest of all the global regions – underlines the huge gap and challenges faced in realising the African Union’s Agenda 2063 vision of economic integration and inclusive socio-economic development on time, and the trade-led development ambitions of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which seeks to bring together 55 African countries and create an integrated market of 1.3 billion people, with a combined GDP of over US$3 trillion.

A major development is the allocation of up to US$50 billion to help build resilient infrastructure and inclusive societies in the African continent by the Arab Coordination Group (ACG) at the recent Arab-Africa and Saudi-Africa Summits’ Economic Conference in Riyadh. The ACG is a strategic alliance that provides a coordinated response to development finance. Current members are the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, the Arab Gulf Programme for Development, the Arab Monetary Fund, the Islamic Development Bank, the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development, the OPEC Fund for International Development, the Qatar Fund for Development, and the Saudi Fund for Development.

The ACG has been a long-standing supporter of African partner countries and has cumulatively invested over US$220 billion in the region to date. “We reaffirm our commitment to supporting the sustainable development of countries in Africa. Recognizing that the link between sustainable development and climate financing is cross-cutting and complex, the ACG reaffirms its commitment to scaling up financial assistance for climate change in line with the Paris Climate Agreement and to helping bridge investment gaps in energy access, including low-carbon energy sources, climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience, as well as food security,” said the Group in a statement.

On the global GDP growth front, the outlook is equally mixed. Moody’s Investors Service, in its latest forecast, expects global G-20 growth to moderate in 2024 to 2.1% from 2.8% in 2023 and accelerate in 2025 to 2.6%, the firm said in its Global Macroeconomic Outlook 2024-25. “We forecast real economic activity in advanced G-20 economies to decelerate from an estimated 1.7% in 2023 to just 1.0% in 2024 and recover to 1.8% in 2025,” said Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President CSR, at Moody’s. “Growth in G-20 emerging markets will slow from 4.4% in 2023 to 3.7% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025. Excluding China, G-20 EM growth will decelerate to 3.3% in 2024 from an estimated 3.5% in 2023 before accelerating to 3.5% in 2025.

The main reason, according to Dr Bokil, is that a Synchronous growth slowdown is expected in 2024 owing to the ongoing tightening in monetary and financial conditions in advanced economies. Traditional sources of strength will not buoy growth for too long – financial conditions have tightened even more in the last two months, which will further continue to dampen spending and investment. To him, economic strength across emerging market countries varies considerably, with some like India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia outperforming expectations, while outlooks for Türkiye and Argentina are highly uncertain.

Proliferation of Platform-base Trade

The 2023 ICC Trade Register Summary Report gives a more nuanced vista of the dynamics of global trade prospects, which will be increasingly subject to the impact of regulatory changes, especially due to the new reporting requirements from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), and the ongoing digitisation and future of platform-based trade. The geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges of 2022 have continued and have even intensified, in some cases, fueled by weak global growth, elevated inflation, and high interest rates. On the demand side, observes the ICC, consumption slowed from the post-pandemic bounce but remained strong. Households continued to spend the savings they had accumulated during the pandemic, while government spending continued apace, for example, in relation to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

On the supply side, while the shipping constraints of 2021 abated, supply chains remained disrupted, partly due to new trade policies across many countries. According to the ICC Trade Report, international goods trade flows reached US$23.8 trillion in 2022, up 10.7% from 2021. This was a softening in trade growth relative to the 25.5% jump in 2021, as the post-pandemic recovery eased in 2022. But this growth in 2022 was primarily driven by inflation rather than an increase in volume, as commodity prices jumped: in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms, goods trade flows grew only 3% in 2022 versus 2021.

The services trade tells a different story. Trade in services reached $6.8 trillion in 2022, up 14% from 2021, driven by strong growth across all regions in a continued post-pandemic recovery. Europe continues to be the regional leader, with a 53% share of global services exports in 2022. Services trade grew at a faster rate than goods trade in 2022, the opposite of what we saw in 2021 (where services trade grew at 19% vs. 26% for goods trade). This was due to a more sustained post-pandemic recovery for services than for goods. Its forecast for 2023 and beyond is to the point ‘Growth, but Slower Growth.’

Boston Consulting Group (BCG), which contributed to the ICC Trade Report, projects global exports of goods, excluding services and FX receipts, to reach US$23.8 trillion in 2023, rising by 4.6% to US$37.4 trillion in 2032.

Following the sharp increase in trade finance revenues by 28.2% in 2021 relative to 2020, BCG estimates that nominal trade and supply chain finance revenues grew a pace of 6.3% in 2021 to 2022, reaching a total of US$63 billion. The slowdown was due to softening of both volume growth and product penetration, as some businesses chose to go without trade and supply chain finance products to avoid the higher costs. A narrowing of margins also played a role in squeezing revenue growth in 2022.

The prospects for trade finance in 2023 are turning out to be a more challenging year. BCG forecasts nominal trade and supply chain finance revenues to fall by 7.4% in 2022 to 2023. Looking further ahead, trade and supply chain finance revenues are forecast to grow modestly in the year 2023 to 2024 before picking up and growing by 3.8% per annum from 2022 to 2032, reaching $91 billion by 2032 on a nominal basis. “Growth in open account products is slowing but is expected to remain strong as its speed, ease and cost effectiveness outweigh the risk mitigation properties of documentary trade. The ease of digitisation of open account also works in its favour,” said BCG.

BCG also stresses the importance of ongoing digitisation and the future of platform-based trade. Digitisation is going from strength to strength, with the majority of players investing heavily in their trade and supply chain infrastructure in order to:

1. Modernise the customer experience,
2. Provide new product functionalities across the full procure-to-pay value chain (e.g. pre-shipment finance, distributor finance, etc.),
3. Enable greater platform and ecosystem connectivity in order to originate transactions where customers do business (rather than customers coming direct to bank),
4. Enable greater modernisation to reduce cost and improve processing times, and
5. Improve data and reporting and to enable balance sheet velocity of documentary trade through asset distribution which is expected to grow as legacy systems are replaced or upgraded, and data becomes more widely available.

The real economy impact for ICIEC member states is implicit. According to WTO estimates, Bangladesh’s total exports of digitally delivered services for instance, have been growing by 15% annually since 2005, compared with 11% for goods, albeit from a very low base. Bangladesh has put digitalization at the core of its development. Around 14% of the online freelance global workforce originates and resides in Bangladesh, making it the top supplier of the online workforce in creative and multimedia services. As such, business-to-customer e-commerce is expected to grow by 18% per cent annually.

Digitisation has also been enabled by the growth in platform-based trade, where FinTechs and challengers are innovating on new ways to capture market share and scale. Many banks are now participating in digital trade platforms, e.g., for e-invoicing, payables automation, supply chain financing and working capital management. These platforms vary by geographic reach, product and client focus, and underlying technology, but the market has been somewhat bifurcated.

“While digitisation supports the shift to open account through the development of new products, it also improves the efficiency and security of documentary trade, underpinning its continued importance in the product mix. Moreover, digitisation not only facilitates broad industry growth but also supports inclusive growth. It is seen as key to reducing the “trade finance gap” for SMEs, which has widened recently due to higher interest rates,” maintains BCG.

Advances in Electronic Trade Documentation

The three major and potentially game-changing developments in the electronic trade documentation architecture are the Electronic Trade Documents Act (ETDC) 2023 in the UK receiving Royal Assent from King Charles the III on 20July, becoming legally effective on 20 September in an effort to make Global Britain’s trade with partners all over the world more straightforward, efficient and sustainable  , the enhancement of the Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records (MLETR)  , and the World Trade Organisation (WTO’s) initiative in including work on trade-related aspects of e-commerce as part of the organisation’s Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on E-commerce in future WTO negotiations.

Perhaps the biggest potential leap change in the near-to-medium term may come in digital underwriting and digitalization in commercial insurance lines using targeted Generative AI, according to Swiss Re. It is important in the current climate of AI hype not to over-think nor over-talk the significance of AI in order to facilitate an orderly transformation to this very disruptive and yet inevitable technology.

“Along with the use of big data,” says Swiss Re, “AI is expected to be eventually used widely in risk assessment and underwriting. Given the level of confidence needed to deploy new technologies in underwriting, fully digitalised/automated AI and Machine Learning (ML) enabled systems are still not accurate enough for use at scale. This also means that algorithms cannot be relied on to fully replace traditional risk assessment, except in simpler lines of business such as motor. This said digitalisation can complement existing processes, including classifying and segmenting risk as finely as possible for more accurate risk pricing.”

Increasingly, commercial insurers are making use of digital technology in portfolio steering and risk selection. The benefits are important. “By leveraging third-party digital data overlaid with their own information,” stresses Swiss Re, “they can derive insights on potential risk accumulation, such as that caused by a concentration of high-value properties exposed to specific hazards. For example, the utility sectors’ liability exposure is increasing due to infrastructure that can spark fires. Utilities may operate in wildfire prone regions (eg, network operators, tree cutters). Using third-party digital data on, for instance, locating sources of ignition such as power lines and rail tracks, insurers have a deeper view as to areas of potential fire risk accumulation.”

The importance of the above developments cannot be ignored. The WTO initiative for instance, involves 89 (as of July 2023) member states, accounting for over 90% of global trade. These negotiations span a broad range of critical topics such as online consumer protection, electronic signatures and authentication, electronic contracts, transparency, paperless trading, open internet access, and data flows and data localization.

In this respect, the WTO Informal Working Group on Micro-and-Small-and Medium-sized-Enterprises (MSMEs) continues to discuss challenges for MSME access to digital trade, including cyber readiness, standardizing trade digitalization, and single windows (or access points) to access trade information. Recommendations like these, stressed the WTO, will be critical for increasing the inclusiveness of the international trade environment and should also be included in discussions at the WTO and in regional trade agreements (RTAs).

The benefits are real albeit incremental, and in need of urgent domestic and global trade system structural development, according to the world trade body. Automation and digitalization of production processes will continue because they increase productivity, allow firms to remain competitive in international markets, improve product quality and provide greater flexibility in responding to changes in the market.

Embracing a strengthened multilateral trading system through re-globalization would support inclusiveness by facilitating GVC-led industrialization and services-led growth. Growth in services trade, particularly digitally delivered services, needs agreements on services domestic regulation, e-commerce, and investment facilitation. WTO members can help facilitate a more inclusive global trading system by negotiating new accessions, extending their commitments, updating trade rules at the multilateral level, and working with other international organizations to ensure more people benefit from world trade.

Digitalization of trade could be a great equaliser and facilitator by providing new opportunities for those economies that have so far been left behind by allowing them to overcome some of the most important barriers to trade that they face, such as transportation costs and institutional disadvantages.

More importantly, it would also provide new opportunities for small firms, people living in remote areas, and women. Digital trade allows people globally to directly access international markets and supply their services even if there is no longer an industry domestically. Promoting more international cooperation, however, would need to be accompanied by requisite domestic policies without compromising the ethos of individual countries’ development agendas, as they play an important role in helping make globalization more inclusive.

ETDA’s £1.14 Billion Boost

There is no doubt that the biggest boost can come from the UK’s ETDA, with the British Government’s initial estimate that the UK economy is set to receive a £1.14 billion boost over the next decade through the “Innovative Trade Digitalisation Act.” With less chance of sensitive paper documents being lost, and stronger safeguards through the use of technology, digitalising trade documents is also set to give businesses that trade internationally greater security and peace of mind.

“The Electronic Trade Documents Act,” says Chris Southworth, Secretary General of the UK Chapter of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), “is a game changing piece of law not just for the UK but also for world trade. The act will enable companies to finally remove all the paper and inefficiency that exists in trade today and ensure that future trade is far cheaper, faster, simpler and more sustainable. This presents a once in a generation opportunity to transform the trading system and help us drive much needed economic growth.” The ICC estimates that 80% of trade documents around the world are based off English law, and this act serves as the cornerstone to truly digitalising international trade.

With English law being the very foundation of international trade, several Islamic finance contracts such as the Commodity and Syndicated Murabaha and Sukuk issuance, this act puts the UK ahead and in the lead of not only other G7 countries but almost all other countries in the world. The UK, says Minister for International Trade, Nigel Huddleston, is widely seen as a leader in digital trade, and this new act will make it easier for businesses to trade efficiently with each other, cutting costs and growing the UK economy by billions over time. “It’s exciting to see the power of technology being harnessed to benefit all industries, reduce paper waste and modernise our trading laws, an approach which the rest of the world will seek to follow,” he added.

Indeed, the Electronic Trade Documents Act recently implemented in the UK, according to the WTO, removes requirements for the majority of paper trade documentation. Varying degrees of progress are also being made towards implementation in the remaining G7 countries, with each taking unique approaches to amend and introduce legislation.

The Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records (MLETR) has already been in use since 2018 in a range of emerging markets, such as the UAE and Bahrain. The digitisation of trade finance documents has the capability to improve efficiency, reduce costs, enhance security, and diminish the extensive carbon footprint of paper documentation. More broadly, progress is being made to remove legal barriers to trade in many countries, such as France, Germany, the US under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the UK.

The stakes are high for both AGOA-acceded countries and the US. Since its inception in 2000, AGOA has been at the core of US economic policy and commercial engagement with Africa. AGOA provides 32 eligible SSA countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products, in addition to over 5,000 products that are eligible for duty-free access under the WTO’s Generalized System of Preferences programme.

Harnessing the Next Phase of Digitalization Opportunities in Re-globalisation of World Trade and Investment

The post-Covid 19 acceleration in digitalization across economic and societal sectors presents not only a source of growth opportunities and new efficiencies, but also a spate of new risks for the insurance industry, especially the credit and investment insurance cohort. Oussama Kaissi, CEO of ICIEC, considers the state of digitalisation in trade, investment and insurance, new developments in closing the digital divide between developed and emerging economies, and the opportunities and pitfalls relating to over-reliance on digitalisation, as ICIEC member states seek to build on their trade and FDI potential, attractiveness and resilience.

The talk in the corridors of power at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) these days is that of re-globalisation instead of trade fragmentation. WTO’s 2023 World Trade Report (WTR) published in September stresses evidenced-based benefits of “broader, more inclusive economic integration as early indications of trade fragmentation threaten to unwind growth and development.” The findings, perhaps more importantly, highlight how re-globalization – or increased international cooperation and broader integration – can support security, inclusiveness, and environmental sustainability.

Trade, according to the WTO and industry organisations, has also become more digital, green and inclusive. The digital revolution has bolstered trade in digitally delivered services by sharply reducing the costs of trading these services. The value of global trade in environmental goods and services has increased rapidly, outpacing total goods trade, and global value chains (GVCs) have expanded to encompass more economies.

The UN Global Sustainable Development Report (GSDR) 2023 similarly identifies digitalization as one of the six dynamic conditions shaping the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, to which ICIEC is committed to helping its 49 member states progress towards achieving the goals in their development agenda through its financing, credit enhancement and risk mitigation solutions. The other five conditions include climate change, biodiversity and nature loss, demographic change and inequality 7- all of which are also embedded in the policies and services offered by ICIEC. The Corporation, of course, is also a signatory to the Principles for Responsible Insurance.

As great as digitalisation is as a game-changing disruptor and a perceived force for socio-economic good given the latest ‘advancements’ in terms of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), Data Analytics, Blockchain, Internet-of-Things, Electronic Trade Documentation and so on, the reality of a digital divide between advanced economies and low-and-medium-income-countries (LMICs) is similarly evident.

Digitalisation as a Double-Edged Sword
But digitalisation like any other societal phenomenon can also be a double-edged sword. As such it needs careful and proactive harnessing, articulation, monitoring, regulation and enforcement, especially in the multi trillion-dollar finance, insurance, trade and investment universe. Inaction, delays and lack of adequate oversight could be costly and impact negatively on the global trade and investment ecosystem, which would give succour to disguised protectionism unfair trade and investment terms and conditions, which would exacerbate entrenched existing inequalities.

Digital value creation, says Swiss Re Institute (SRI), has led to an increase of insurance firms intangible assets, including digital data. At the same time, increased dependency on digital infrastructure makes such assets more vulnerable, for example, to business interruption and continuity, online fraud and scams, and malicious cyberattacks.

In a recent report titled “The economics of digitalisation in insurance”, SRI found that potential benefits across countries and throughout the insurance value chain are far from exhausted. Take, for instance Continental Africa, where some 27 IsDB member states are located, the 2023 WTR Projections based on the WTO Global Trade Model suggest that digitalization has the potential to increase African exports of services by over 7% per year or an aggregate US$74 billion from 2023 to 2040.

“Africa has been increasingly active in various joint initiatives undertaken by large groups of WTO Members,” explained WTO Deputy Director-General Angela Ellard in a recent speech. “Around 20 African members participate in our new investment facilitation for development agreement, designed to make developing countries more attractive for investment. Several African countries participate in discussions on e-commerce, and many are engaged in our e-commerce work program designed to bridge the digital divide and use digital trade as an engine for development. African countries are deeply engaged in discussions about how trade can contribute to economic sustainability. Today, 40% of funds under the WTO’s flagship Aid for Trade programme go to Africa.”

The challenges for insurers in general and credit and investment insurers in particular are clear and present. For ICIEC, uniquely the only Shariah-compliant multilateral insurer in the world, there are additional layers of compliance and operational risk metrics in play.

Digitalisation in Insurance
Swiss Re Institute (SRI), in “The economics of digitalisation in insurance” report, rightly stresses that digitalisation enables insurers to monitor, mitigate and price risks more efficiently, allowing for more tailored insurance solutions that can help close insurance protection gaps. Hence its call for “insurance innovation” and warning against any complacency and orthodoxy. In this respect, insurers are targeting a 3–8 percentage point improvement in loss ratios and savings of 10–20% in other parts of the value chain through digital transformation.

In the report, SRI, in fact, introduced the Insurance Digitalisation Index (IDI), which tracks the progress made in 29 sample countries with respect to the digitalisation of their insurance markets. South Korea came out on top of the index, followed by Sweden, Finland and the US. “While advanced markets with strong physical infrastructure and high internet access rates have made the most progress in digitalising their economies and insurance sectors, emerging markets should benefit from faster catch-up growth because they can jump straight into adopting newer digital technologies rather than transitioning from legacy systems,” stressed the report.

Another initiative aimed at bridging the gap between standards and adoption within the supply chain finance and insurance industry is the recent launch in Dubai by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) UAE Chapter of the ICC Digital Standards Initiative (DSI) as part of its expanded digital standards recommendations under its current Key Trade Documents and Data Elements (KTDDE) practice.

“The DSI’s continued efforts to expand the understanding of digital standards in international Trade,” explained Robert Beideman, Vice-Chair of the ICC DSI Industry Advisory Board, “represents a significant step forward in streamlining global commerce. By promoting data reusability and consistency across supply chains, we are facilitating more efficient and secure transactions for businesses across the globe.”

Despite the rapid digital transformation of the insurance industry, accelerated by recent advancements in cutting-edge technology, the consensus is that there are still significant potential and growth opportunities to make insurance more accessible and affordable for consumers, which behoves insurance providers and guarantors to continue investing in innovative solutions and adapting to emerging risks.

For consumers, says the SRI, online marketplaces lead to greater price transparency, present multiple insurance products and providers in a single place and allow customers to seamlessly complete the onboarding process online, making insurance more accessible and affordable. Aside from distribution, investments in insurance technology have shifted towards efficiency gains and improving underwriting and claims.

Resilience as a Function of Digitalisation
Indeed, Jerome Haegeli, Group Chief Economist at Swiss Re, maintains that there is a positive correlation between resilience and digitalisation. For society, he adds, digitalisation is a force for giving more people access to insurance and thereby closing protection gaps. For insurers, gains from better underwriting, risk mitigation and risk measurement from the digitalisation of insurance improve the quality and efficiency of their work.

The digitalisation of the wider economy, will also create new risk pools, opening up opportunities for insurers, especially in sharing-economy business models, which have resulted in fundamental shifts in operational risks and liabilities that require innovative insurance risk transfer solutions. With the shift from producing physical goods to providing information and services, the global value of intangible assets of listed companies has increased fivefold over the past 20 years, to US$76 trillion in 2021. Close to 80% of that value remains uninsured.

As such, insurers will need protection against digital risks, for example, business interruption and cyber risks, as well as the emerging liability risks related to AI. Cyber security, says Swiss Re, is a key concern for businesses globally, as reflected by the rapid growth in demand for cyber insurance. Swiss Re Institute estimates global cyber premiums will reach US$16 billion in 2023, up 60% from 2021 and US$25 billion by 2026.

Some key takeaways for insurers, according to the Swiss Re Institute, as they develop their digitalisation strategies going forward include:

• The impact of digitalisation is mis-measured which gives an underreporting of product structures, pricing, progress, challenges and market awareness and penetration.
• While workplace technology, in general, improves productivity by saving labour input, for example, through automation, the socio-economic costs can be huge. This raises the prospect of “technological unemployment”, which could put strains on existing unemployment insurance and worker’s compensation schemes.
• The correlation between the introduction of digital technology and disinflationary impact, although increasing digitalisation does not necessarily mean general deflation.
• Typically, countries that are more digital show greater resilience to health, mortality, natural catastrophes and agriculture, which affect LMICs disproportionately.
• The high value of intangible assets in business today are significantly uninsured: just an estimated 16.6% of intangibles are insured, compared with 58% of tangible assets. Digital transformation has given rise to new types of business models, most notably the sharing economy. Businesses will need more protection against the risk that intangible pose.
• Digitalisation has reshaped market dynamics, creating concentration risks. Dependencies on critical digital infrastructure create supply-chain risks. Many insurers themselves are exposed to digital infrastructure risks, although multilateral insurers such as ICIEC can mitigate these through reinsurance treaties and their special status with the ministries and agencies of member states.
• The first wave of digitalisation made the value chain more efficient. The next wave will better connect critical processes and improve digital connectivity across the processes, and thus increase operational efficiency, which potentially can reduce claims costs by 3-8%.
• Technology applications have enabled insurers to bring products significantly more quickly to market.
• Insurtechs, technological innovators in the processes of insurance business, are a good place to observe digitalisation trends in the industry’s value chain.

A Changing Global Landscape

The global trading landscape keeps evolving with advances in technology and science. The trade of tomorrow will be green and digital, and we need to make sure that our member states are able to transition smoothly to this new reality. ICIEC’s various policies, services and programmes offer an opportunity to build stronger partnerships for food security, digital connectivity, just transition to clean energy, and mainstreaming trade and investment.

Digital technology allows insurers to gather and process large sets of data using connected devices, data analytics and machine learning. This will allow more holistic and accurate risk assessments and better pricing of risks. Digital solutions can also automate standardised tasks, such as data collection and analysis for underwriting, driving down costs and ultimately leading to lower premiums. An important component of this transition includes capacity building of member states, their agencies, financial and insurance institutions and market players on the pivotal role of information sharing, business intelligence, digitalization and automation in supporting trade and investment decisions.

This initiative comes under the widely acknowledged capacity-building programme for users of the OIC Business Intelligence Centre (OBIC), whose thrusts are i) How digitalization and business intelligence can support trade and investment and the transformative potential of digitalization for economic growth and investment promotion utilizing digital transformation roadmaps for SMEs, and the digitalization of investment promotion services  , ii) The importance of reliable credit information, reporting and sharing, and of digital IDs in fostering financial inclusion and trade promotion  , and iii) The value of efficient utilization of statistical sources of information on credit, trade, and investment.

Addressing the Digital Divide
While the pandemic did give rise to an unprecedented acceleration in the digitalization of goods and services, including in the use of mobile telephony in e-commerce and payments where Africa is leading the world, all stakeholders, especially governments, multilaterals, banks, insurers, trade bodies, and digital and technology enablers and facilitators must never lose sight of the reality on the ground where, according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), although 66% of the global population or 5.3 billion people used the Internet in 2022, up from 54% in 2019, some 2.7 billion people globally have yet to access the Internet, including SMEs and the self-employed – often the backbone of LMICs economies.

“They are missing out on vital services provided digitally. Adequate and resilient infrastructure is a prerequisite for all the SDGs, and even before the pandemic, infrastructure was far from adequate. Some 1 billion people live more than a mile from a road, and 450 million live beyond the range of a broadband signal. With fiscal tightening and the end of low borrowing costs, infrastructure updates and investments are likely to be below what is needed. The war in Ukraine and the subdued economic growth in China is expected to continue to dampen the slow investment recovery following the pandemic,” emphasised the UN GSDR study.

As such, one way in which emerging markets can begin to close their digital divide with advanced markets at a structural level are through investments in internet accessibility. And here, the role of all stakeholders, including insurers, is not only in their immediate area of business, such as underwriting and providing guarantees as in the case of entities such as ICIEC, but also in supporting the harnessing of the wider digitalisation ecosystem, which primarily includes accessibility and infrastructure investment.

The good news is that digital transformation remains high on the insurance industry agenda. The initial focus was on distribution, seemingly to good effect. Insurers are experimenting with digitalisation across the value chain for efficiency gains. Today, 31 of the 50 largest re/insurers invest in Insurtech in pursuit of a first-mover advantage!